Match Timeline
D. Williams⚽B. Clark⚽
M. Owen🟨D. Gosset🔄R. Holden🔄M. Owen🔄D. Thomas🔄P. Mooney🔄J. Marshall🔄B. Clark🔄J. Williams⚽O. Ellis🔄D. Barton⚽Head-to-Head
📈 Team Form & Statistics
ELO comparison
Pre-match ratings
 Caernarfon TownHome | Rating |  The New SaintsAway |
|---|---|---|
| Strength | ||
| 1,609.3 | Overall | 1,908.7 |
| 1,556.2 | Match venue | 1,850.2 |
| 1,556.2 | At home | 1,877 |
| 1,593.9 | Away | 1,850.2 |
| Attack & defence | ||
| 1,600.2 | Attack | 1,732.1 |
| 1,566 | Defence | 1,719.3 |
| 1,616.4 | Home attack | 1,766.2 |
| 1,561.8 | Away attack | 1,704.2 |
| 1,507.2 | Home defence | 1,686.5 |
| 1,567 | Away defence | 1,734.2 |
| Match profile | ||
| 2,075 | Goal environment | 2,826.7 |
| 1,808.3 | Home goals | 2,308.3 |
| 1,766.7 | Away goals | 2,018.3 |
| 1,500 | Possession | 1,500 |
| Specialist ratings | ||
| 1,500 | Set-piece attack | 1,500 |
| 1,500 | Set-piece defence | 1,500 |
| 1,534.9 | Close games | 1,716.8 |
| 1,641 | Winning margin | 1,950.8 |
Match venue compares Caernarfon Town at home with The New Saints away. All ratings are within this league.
Higher goal environment ratings mean higher-scoring games, not necessarily a stronger team. A starting league rating is 1500.
📝 Match Preview
The Welsh Premier League continues with a crucial fixture between Caernarfon Town and The New Saints on 2026-03-27. The New Saints enter this match as the clear favorites, sitting comfortably at the top of the league table with 53 points from 22 games, while Caernarfon Town occupies a mid-table position with 34 points. Recent form heavily favors the visitors. The New Saints have secured 8 wins in their last 10 matches, averaging 2.40 points per game. In stark contrast, Caernarfon Town has managed only 3 wins in their last 10 games, averaging 1.20 points per game. This disparity is reflected in the goal statistics: The New Saints score an average of 1.80 goals per game while conceding just 0.80. Caernarfon Town scores 1.60 goals per game but concedes 1.50. The head-to-head record is the most telling metric here. In 9 meetings, The New Saints have won 8 times, scoring 26 goals compared to Caernarfon Town's 7. Notably, Caernarfon Town has not won a single home game against The New Saints in their last 3 encounters, losing 1-2, 0-2, and 0-3 in the most recent fixtures. The Saints' away performance is also impeccable, boasting a 100% win rate in their last 3 away games. Goal expectancy models suggest a total of 3.33 goals (Home 1.43, Away 1.90), supporting an Over 2.5 Goals outcome, but the primary value lies in the match result. With The New Saints showing 80% win rate recently and dominating the H2H record, the probability of an away victory is significant. The bookmakers offer odds of 1.50 for an Away Win, implying a 66.7% chance. Given the Saints' 89% win rate in H2H and their current form, a true win probability of roughly 75% is supported by the data, creating positive expected value. **Key Points:** - The New Saints are top of the league (53 pts) vs Caernarfon Town (34 pts). - Saints have 80% win rate in last 10 games; Caernarfon has 30%. - H2H: Saints won 8 of 9 matches; Caernarfon has 0 home wins vs Saints. - Saints concede 0.80 goals per game; Caernarfon concedes 1.50. **Summary:** The data overwhelmingly points to a The New Saints victory. The H2H dominance and current form gap provide a compelling case for the Away Win market at 1.50 odds.
Read Full Preview →