Friday night football in the Welsh Premier League relegation round sees rock-bottom llanelli AFC host Haverfordwest County AFC, with the visitors looking to cement their place at the top of the split and continue their remarkable defensive run. llanelli arrive in this fixture in truly dire straits. With just 9 points from 25 games and a goal difference of -51, they are cut adrift at the foot of the table. Their recent form offers zero respite: winless in their last ten matches (0-2-8), conceding 26 goals while managing just six at the other end. That 2.6 goals conceded per game average is backed by some alarming scorelines – a 6-0 Welsh Cup drubbing by Barry Town, a 5-1 league hammering by the same opponent, and a 3-0 reverse against this very Haverfordwest side on Boxing Day. At home, it's been even worse defensively (2.4 conceded per game), and they've failed to score in four of their last six home fixtures, including the 0-3 loss to Haverfordwest and a 0-1 defeat to Penybont. Haverfordwest County, by contrast, are flying. They sit top of the relegation round group with 33 points and come into this clash on the back of three consecutive victories: a 3-0 dismantling of Bala Town, followed by impressive 2-0 away wins at Briton Ferry and Cardiff MET. The hallmark of their recent surge has been defensive solidity – seven clean sheets in their last ten games (70%) and just nine goals conceded in that stretch. Even on the road, they've been formidable, winning 50% of their last six away days and keeping four clean sheets in those matches. The reverse fixture on Boxing Day provides the template here. Haverfordwest cruised to a 3-0 victory on home soil, and while the head-to-head record is historically balanced (three wins apiece in the last six meetings), current trajectories could not be more divergent. llanelli's only points in their last ten came via 1-1 draws against Cardiff MET and Caernarfon Town – hardly the form to trouble a side that's kept their opponents at bay in seven of their last ten outings. From a tactical standpoint, Haverfordwest's ability to shut down attacks (conceding just 0.9 per game recently) against llanelli's blunt home attack (0.4 goals per game) suggests the visitors will control the tempo. llanelli have shown they can occasionally nick a goal – they scored in three of their last six home games – but their defensive vulnerabilities mean they're always chasing the game. **Key Points:** • llanelli have won just 2 of 25 league games this season and are winless in their last 10 (0-2-8) • Haverfordwest have kept 7 clean sheets in their last 10 matches, conceding only 9 goals • The reverse fixture on 26 December 2025 ended 3-0 to Haverfordwest • llanelli concede 2.6 goals per game on average in their last 10, scoring just 0.6 • Haverfordwest have won their last 3 games, scoring 7 and conceding 0 **Summary:** The gulf in class and current form is stark. While 1.40 is never a price to get excited about, the data suggests Haverfordwest should have far too much quality for a llanelli side that's been leaking goals at an alarming rate. The visitors' defensive record (70% clean sheet rate in last 10) against the league's worst attack makes the away win the logical selection, with the probability of success comfortably exceeding the implied odds.