Ehime FC host Tokushima Vortis in J2 League action looking to end a miserable winless run, but the statistics suggest they face an uphill battle against one of the division's early pace-setters. The home side's form makes for grim reading. Ehime are winless in their last ten matches, managing just four draws while suffering six defeats. Their defensive vulnerabilities are particularly alarming, having conceded 22 goals (2.20 per game) while keeping zero clean sheets during this stretch. At home, the situation deteriorates further with Ehime leaking 2.33 goals per game across their last six home fixtures and failing to secure a single victory. Recent results highlight their struggles. After opening their 2026 campaign with a 0-1 home defeat to Albirex Niigata, they managed back-to-back 2-2 draws against Kanazawa and Nara Club. While showing character to salvage points, these were against mid-table opposition with modest form records (Kanazawa at 1.60 PPG, Nara Club at 1.10-1.20 PPG). Heavy home defeats including a 0-4 thrashing by V-varen Nagasaki and 1-3 loss to Jubilo Iwata underscore their defensive frailties against stronger attacks. Tokushima Vortis arrive in stark contrast. Sitting second in the early standings with six points from three games, they possess a potent attack averaging 1.90 goals per game over their last ten matches. Their away form is particularly impressive, winning 50% of their last four road games while scoring two goals per game and conceding just 0.50. The visitors have demonstrated their attacking prowess with statement results including a 6-0 demolition of Nara Club away from home and a 4-0 home victory over Albirex Niigata. Even in their recent 1-3 home defeat to Kataller Toyama, they found the net, maintaining their scoring consistency. Defensively, they've kept three clean sheets in their last ten overall and their away defensive record suggests they can stifle Ehime's modest attack, which manages just 0.83 goals per game at home. Head-to-head history favors Tokushima significantly. They have won five of the eight encounters compared to Ehime's two, including a 1-0 victory in the most recent meeting last August. Ehime's home record against Tokushima is particularly poor, managing just one win from four attempts. The goal expectancy models point toward a comfortable away victory, projecting 2.17 goals for Tokushima against just 0.67 for Ehime. Given Ehime's inability to keep clean sheets and Tokushima's consistent away scoring, the pattern looks set for another difficult afternoon for the hosts. **Key Points:** • Ehime FC are winless in their last 10 games (0-4-6) and have not won at home in their last six attempts • Tokushima Vortis have won 50% of their last four away games, scoring 2.00 goals per game while conceding just 0.50 • The visitors have scored 10 goals in their last two games against Nara Club and Albirex Niigata • Ehime have conceded 22 goals in their last 10 matches (2.20 per game) with zero clean sheets • Head-to-head record shows Tokushima with five wins to Ehime's two from eight meetings **Summary:** The disparity in form, defensive solidity, and attacking threat makes Tokushima Vortis the clear selection. At odds of 1.93, the away win represents solid value against a side showing no signs of turning their fortunes around. The goal expectancy and recent scoring patterns suggest Tokushima should secure a comfortable victory.