Kataller Toyama enter this J2 League clash in buoyant mood, sitting fourth in the early standings and boasting the kind of attacking form that should trouble an Ehime FC side still searching for their first win in ten outings. The hosts have hit the ground running in 2026 with eight points from four games, and their recent 3-1 demolition of high-flying Tokushima Vortis followed by a 5-1 rout of Kamatamare Sanuki demonstrates they can dismantle both promotion contenders and mid-table fodder alike. The numbers paint a stark contrast between these sides. Toyama are averaging 1.80 goals per game across their last ten matches, with their home attack producing 1.60 per game. More impressively, they're trending upwards in all key metrics—goals scored, goals conceded, and points accumulated. Their defensive record of 1.10 conceded per game provides a solid foundation, though they've shown vulnerability in the 1-3 reverse at Kochi United, their only blot in an otherwise strong start to the campaign. Ehime FC arrive in desperate shape. Winless in their last ten fixtures (0-4-6), they're scraping just 0.40 points per game and conceding at an alarming rate of 2.00 goals per match. Their inability to keep clean sheets (0% in last 10) is compounded by a toothless attack managing just 0.80 goals per game. While they've shown resilience in drawing four of those ten games—including 2-2 stalemates against Kanazawa and Nara Club—the lack of cutting edge is evident. Their away record is particularly concerning: zero wins, conceding 2.00 per game on the road. The head-to-head history offers some hope for Ehime—they've taken points in three of the last nine meetings including a 1-1 draw when these sides met in November. However, context is crucial. That draw came when Toyama were struggling for form (0.50 PPG in that period), whereas they now operate at 1.70 PPG with genuine momentum. Toyama's home record against Ehime stands at 50% wins, and given the current trajectory, they should improve that percentage here. The goal expectancy models suggest 2.80 total goals (1.80 for Toyama, 1.00 for Ehime), reflecting the hosts' offensive capabilities against Ehime's defensive frailties. With Toyama's improving defense and Ehime's struggles to find the net, the hosts look well-positioned to control proceedings. **Key Points:** • Kataller Toyama have won 5 of their last 10 games (50% win rate) compared to Ehime's 0 wins in 10 (0%) • Toyama's attack averages 1.80 goals per game; Ehime's defense concedes 2.00 per game • Ehime FC are winless in 10 matches with zero clean sheets during that run • Toyama have beaten quality opposition recently, including 3-1 away at Tokushima Vortis (1.80 PPG side) • Home Win odds of 1.95 imply 51.3% probability; true probability estimated at 58% based on form differential **Summary:** The value lies with the home side. Toyama's attacking metrics, combined with Ehime's defensive vulnerabilities and inability to close out games, make the 1.95 on a Kataller Toyama win the standout selection. The hosts have the quality and momentum to extend Ehime's winless run.