Match Timeline
A. Kimura⚽S. Griffiths⚽L. Nieuwenhof🟥S. De Robillard⚽M. O'Donoghue⚽
J. Skotadis⚽Head-to-Head
📈 Team Form & Statistics
ELO comparison
Pre-match ratings
 Manly UnitedHome | Rating |  Rockdale City SunsAway |
|---|---|---|
| Strength | ||
| 1,440.8 | Overall | 1,646.6 |
| 1,503 | Match venue | 1,642.9 |
| 1,503 | At home | 1,617.5 |
| 1,430.8 | Away | 1,642.9 |
| Attack & defence | ||
| 1,381.5 | Attack | 1,613.1 |
| 1,536.2 | Defence | 1,581.4 |
| 1,434.7 | Home attack | 1,603.6 |
| 1,371.2 | Away attack | 1,616.2 |
| 1,551.6 | Home defence | 1,580.8 |
| 1,523.8 | Away defence | 1,543.1 |
| Match profile | ||
| 1,593.3 | Goal environment | 1,996.7 |
| 1,531.7 | Home goals | 1,808.3 |
| 1,561.7 | Away goals | 1,688.3 |
| 1,500 | Possession | 1,500 |
| Specialist ratings | ||
| 1,500 | Set-piece attack | 1,500 |
| 1,500 | Set-piece defence | 1,500 |
| 1,516 | Close games | 1,579.6 |
| 1,419.7 | Winning margin | 1,660.6 |
Match venue compares Manly United at home with Rockdale City Suns away. All ratings are within this league.
Higher goal environment ratings mean higher-scoring games, not necessarily a stronger team. A starting league rating is 1500.
📝 Match Preview
The New South Wales NPL continues with a crucial mid-table clash between Manly United and Rockdale City Suns. Rockdale City Suns enter this fixture as the stronger side, currently sitting 4th in the standings with 18 points from 10 games. In contrast, Manly United occupy 13th place with just 9 points. The gap in the table suggests a significant disparity in form and quality. Rockdale City Suns have demonstrated superior consistency, boasting a 60% win rate over their last 10 games. Their away performance is particularly impressive, with a 75% win rate in their last 4 away fixtures. They have scored 1.9 goals per game on average and conceded 1.4. Recent results highlight this strength, including a 3-0 victory over St. George Saints and a 2-0 win against NWS Spirit. Manly United, however, are struggling. Their overall win rate is only 20%, and they have managed just 0.6 goals per game on average. At home, their win rate drops to 25% over their last 4 home games, conceding 1.0 goals per game. Recent home results include a 1-1 draw against Sydney FC U23 and a 0-0 draw against Blacktown City. While Manly did secure a 1-0 win against Sydney Olympic recently, their offensive output remains a concern. Head-to-head history adds nuance. In the last 10 meetings, Manly United has 3 wins, Rockdale City Suns has 2 wins, and there have been 5 draws. The most recent meeting ended in a 0-0 draw. Despite Manly's historical edge in H2H, the current form heavily favors Rockdale. Goal expectancy data suggests a total of approximately 2.38 goals (Home 1.00, Away 1.38), indicating a moderate scoring environment. From a betting perspective, the odds for an Away Win are set at 2.10. Given Rockdale's 60% win rate and strong away form (75% win rate), the implied probability of 47.6% appears undervalued compared to the team's actual performance metrics. This provides a clear edge. While Manly's defense at home is decent (1.0 conceded/game), Rockdale's attack (1.9 scored/game) is the primary driver here. Considering the standings gap, the recent form divergence, and the away win probability, the value lies with the visitors. The signals align: better league position, higher win rate, and superior goal output. Therefore, the recommendation is to back Rockdale City Suns to win.
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