🟨
Stade Brestois 292-2Monza
Fri, 17 Apr 2026, 09:30
Victoria NPL
Australia
Australia
Full Time

Match Timeline

52'
L. Brooks⚽
Normal Goal
90+1'
A. Lynn⚽
Normal Goal
90+10'
S. Hilliar🟨
Yellow Card
90+10'
S. Hilliar🟥
Red Card

Head-to-Head

📈 Team Form & Statistics

Bentleigh Greens
Bentleigh Greens
Form: L-W-W-W-L
Preston Lions
Preston Lions
Form: L-L-W-D-L
Record
5 W
1 D
4 L
•
4 W
3 D
3 L
Goals Per Game
1.4
Scored
vs
1.5
Scored
1.2
Conceded
vs
1.1
Conceded
Betting Indicators
Clean Sheets
40%
Clean Sheets
30%
BTTS
30%
BTTS
50%
Home/Away Performance
Scored
Home:2.4
Away:0.4
Conceded
Home:1.4
Away:1.0
Scored
Home:1.0
Away:2.3
Conceded
Home:1.0
Away:1.3

ELO comparison

Pre-match ratings

Rating period
Match snapshot
Bentleigh Greens versus Preston Lions: long term ELO, before the match
Bentleigh GreensHomeRatingPreston LionsAway
Strength
1,460.9Overall1,635.1
1,506.6Match venue1,549.3
1,506.6At home1,580.8
1,438.8Away1,549.3
Attack & defence
1,445.1Attack1,552.6
1,522.2Defence1,614.2
1,482.2Home attack1,529.3
1,434.3Away attack1,532.9
1,507.9Home defence1,582.1
1,502.9Away defence1,554.5
Match profile
1,671.7Goal environment1,526.7
1,580Home goals1,506.7
1,591.7Away goals1,520
1,500Possession1,500
Specialist ratings
1,500Set-piece attack1,500
1,500Set-piece defence1,500
1,462Close games1,547.5
1,466.2Winning margin1,658.2

Match venue compares Bentleigh Greens at home with Preston Lions away. All ratings are within this league.

Higher goal environment ratings mean higher-scoring games, not necessarily a stronger team. A starting league rating is 1500.

📝 Match Preview

Bentleigh Greens vs Preston Lions - Victoria NPL Preview
Recommendation:OVER_2_5
Odds:2.00
Expected Value:+40.0%
Confidence:7

The Victoria NPL clash between Bentleigh Greens and Preston Lions on April 17, 2026, presents a compelling case for goals. Both teams have shown strong attacking capabilities in their recent fixtures, with Bentleigh Greens averaging 2.40 goals per game at home and Preston Lions averaging 2.25 goals per game on the road. Head-to-head history strongly supports a high-scoring outcome. In their last two meetings, both matches saw Over 2.5 Goals, with scorelines of 3-2 and 1-2. The historical data shows a 100% hit rate for Over 2.5 Goals in this fixture. Goal expectancy analysis provides further confirmation. The Poisson inputs suggest an expected goal total of 3.64 (1.82 for Bentleigh Greens at home, 1.82 for Preston Lions away). Based on this expectancy, the probability of seeing more than 2.5 goals is approximately 70%. With the market offering odds of 2.00 (implied probability 50%), there is significant value in the Over 2.5 Goals market. Bentleigh Greens have been potent at home, scoring 2.40 goals per game, while Preston Lions have been equally dangerous away, averaging 2.25 goals per game. Both teams have shown vulnerability defensively, with Bentleigh conceding 1.40 goals at home and Preston conceding 1.25 away. This defensive frailty, combined with strong attacking metrics, points towards a match with multiple goals. The market odds of 2.00 for Over 2.5 Goals present a clear opportunity. The combination of H2H trends, recent goal averages, and goal expectancy models creates a strong signal for a high-scoring game. While match result odds are tight (Home 2.63, Away 2.70), the goal market offers a distinct edge based on the data provided.

Read Full Preview →