The 2026 Chinese Super League kicks off with an intriguing Sichuan derby as Chengdu Better City host Sichuan Jiuniu, and the betting landscape reveals a compelling angle in the goals market that sharp punters should not ignore. Chengdu Better City enter this campaign with a significant competitive edge. While the standings show both teams locked on zero points, Chengdu has maintained match sharpness through AFC Champions League commitments as recently as February 17, where they pushed Machida Zelvia close in a 3-2 defeat following a narrow 0-1 home loss to Buriram United. This recent continental action contrasts starkly with Sichuan Jiuniu, who have not played a competitive fixture since November 22, 2025 – a staggering 104-day layoff that raises serious questions about match fitness and tactical cohesion. The statistics paint a picture of two struggling attacks. Chengdu have managed just 0.80 goals per game across their last ten outings, drawing six of those matches including deadlocks against Ural (0-0) and Dynamo (1-1) in winter friendlies. Their home record offers little comfort either, with zero wins in their last three home games and a paltry 0.67 goals per game average at their own ground. Sichuan's away form is equally concerning, suffering defeats in four of their last five road trips while averaging just 0.60 goals per game away from home. Head-to-head history favors Chengdu significantly with a 75% home win rate against Jiuniu, including comprehensive victories of 5-0 and 3-0 in recent seasons. However, the most recent encounter on November 22 ended 1-1, suggesting Jiuniu can frustrate their more illustrious neighbors when organized. The goal expectancy models project a tight contest with combined expected goals of just 1.9, reflecting both teams' recent attacking struggles. Sichuan's prolonged absence from competitive action typically manifests in sluggish attacking patterns and poor finishing – exactly what we observed in their pre-hibernation form where they managed only 1.00 goal per game across their final ten matches of 2025. **Key Points:** - Sichuan Jiuniu have not played competitively for 104 days, creating significant rust concerns - Chengdu Better City have kept match sharp through recent AFC Champions League fixtures - Both teams average under 1.0 goals per game recently (Chengdu 0.80, Sichuan 1.00) - Sichuan's away scoring drops to 0.60 goals per game in their last five road trips - Goal expectancy models project fewer than 2.0 total goals - Under 2.5 Goals priced at 2.45 offers substantial value against implied probability **Summary:** The market appears to be pricing this season opener as a typical high-energy affair, but the data tells a different story. Chengdu's winless run (0 wins in last 10) makes the 1.28 home win odds unbackable despite their advantages, while Sichuan's 104-day competitive drought severely undermines their attacking threat. With both sides showing chronic goal-scoring issues and the visitors likely to lack match sharpness, the Under 2.5 Goals at 2.45 represents excellent value. The true probability sits closer to 58% given the rust factor and low goal expectancies, making this the standout betting angle for the Super League curtain-raiser.