The Super League fixture between Qingdao Jonoon and Dalian Zhixing on May 10, 2026, showcases a stark contrast in current momentum. Qingdao Jonoon, currently positioned 11th in the Super League table with 7 points from 10 matches, has found a potent rhythm. In their last three fixtures, the home side has secured three consecutive victories, outscoring opponents 11-3. Their home record is particularly robust, boasting a 60% win rate, averaging 1.80 goals scored and conceding just 1.20 per game. This offensive surge is backed by statistical output: Qingdao averages 11.90 shots per game with a 30% shot accuracy, maintaining 44.7% possession and generating 5.0 corners per match. Their recent wins came against Wuhan Three Towns (3-1), SHANGHAI SIPG (3-1), and Shandong Luneng (4-1). Conversely, Dalian Zhixing, despite sitting 3rd in the standings with 18 points, is in a concerning slump. Their last two away matches resulted in heavy defeats: a 0-3 loss to Beijing Guoan and a 1-3 defeat to Yunnan Yukun. Their away defensive record is porous, conceding 2.60 goals per game on the road. While Dalian averages 12.40 shots with a higher 37.6% accuracy, their trend lines indicate a decline in goals scored (slope -0.1879) and points. Both teams have had 4 days rest and played 2 matches in the last 14 days, so fatigue is equal. Qingdao Jonoon has a 20% clean sheet rate overall, while Dalian Zhixing boasts a 40% clean sheet rate. However, Dalian's away defense is the weak link, conceding 2.60 goals per game. Qingdao's finishing delta is -1.23, while Dalian's is -1.43, indicating both teams have been underperforming their expected goals, but Qingdao's recent results show they are correcting this. Head-to-head history is limited to two meetings, with Dalian winning one and one draw. The last meeting in August 2025 ended 0-2 to Dalian, but the current form divergence is too stark to rely on past results. Poisson goal expectancy models project 2.20 goals for Qingdao and 1.30 for Dalian, pointing to a 45% probability of a home victory. With market odds at 2.88, the implied probability is roughly 34.7%, offering a clear value edge of over 10%. The data strongly supports a home victory for Qingdao Jonoon. Key Points: * Qingdao Jonoon has won their last 3 matches, scoring 11 goals. * Dalian Zhixing has lost their last 2 away matches, conceding 6 goals. * Qingdao's home scoring average is 1.80, while Dalian's away conceding average is 2.60. * Poisson model favors Home Win (2.20 vs 1.30 expectancy). * Market odds of 2.88 provide significant value against the fair probability. The data strongly supports a home victory for Qingdao Jonoon.