Qingdao Jonoon host Chongqing Tongliang Long in a Super League clash that pits a surging home side against a defensively resilient visitor. The match takes place on 24 May 2026, with both teams carrying distinct statistical profiles into the fixture. Qingdao Jonoon have transformed their home venue into a fortress, winning 80% of their last five home matches. During this run, they have averaged 2.20 goals scored per game while keeping a tight defensive line, conceding just 0.60 goals per home outing. Their recent results showcase a potent attack, with notable victories including a 3-1 win over Dalian Zhixing, a 3-1 triumph against SHANGHAI SIPG, and a 4-1 demolition of Shandong Luneng. Statistically, they register 11.2 shots per game with a 37.6% accuracy rate, and their home shot accuracy climbs to 39.3%. With a goal expectancy lambda of 1.80 at home, Jonoon are clearly capable of breaking down defenses on their own turf. Chongqing Tongliang Long sit second in the Super League table with 21 points from 13 games, boasting a record of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses. They are a difficult team to break down, averaging just 1.00 goals conceded per game across their last ten fixtures. Away from home, they have maintained a 40% win rate in their last five road trips, scoring 1.20 goals per game while conceding 1.40. Their defensive discipline is evident, with a 30% clean sheet rate and a low 1.80 saves per game average on the road, indicating they rarely face sustained pressure. However, their away goal expectancy sits at a modest 0.90, suggesting they rely heavily on counter-attacks and set pieces rather than dominating possession. The mathematical models project a total goal expectancy of 2.70 for this contest. Qingdao's home attack (1.80 lambda) combined with Chongqing's away defense (1.40 conceded) points toward a competitive, potentially high-scoring affair. The bookmakers have priced the Over 2.5 Goals market at 2.08, which aligns closely with the expected output. However, the strongest value lies with the home side. Qingdao's 80% home win rate over the last five matches, coupled with their 2.20 goals per game average at home, provides a clear edge against a Chongqing side that averages just 1.20 away goals. The home win odds of 2.46 represent a solid price given the statistical dominance Jonoon have established on their own patch. Key Points: - Qingdao Jonoon have won 80% of their last five home matches, averaging 2.20 goals scored. - Chongqing Tongliang Long are defensively solid, conceding just 1.00 goals per game on average over their last 10 fixtures. - Poisson modeling projects a total goal expectancy of 2.70, with Jonoon at 1.80 and Chongqing at 0.90. - Jonoon's home shot accuracy (39.3%) and 11.2 shots per game highlight their attacking threat. - Chongqing's away win rate sits at 40%, but their low away goal expectancy (0.90) limits their ceiling. Based on Qingdao Jonoon's overwhelming home form, strong shot metrics, and the statistical edge projected by the models, the home side is well-positioned to secure all three points. I will bet on the Home Win.