NK Slaven Belupo host NK Varazdin in a Croatia HNL clash on Sunday, with the visitors looking to build on a blistering start to the campaign. The table reflects a clear disparity: Varazdin sit 5th with a perfect record of one win from one game, while Slaven Belupo are 9th following a 2-0 defeat to Dinamo Zagreb. However, the underlying metrics and recent form tell an even starker story. Varazdin arrive in exceptional shape, boasting an 80% win rate across their last 10 matches. They have averaged 2.40 points per game, scoring 17 goals while conceding just 9. Their away form is particularly formidable, with a 60% win rate on the road, averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per trip. In contrast, Slaven Belupo have struggled significantly, managing only 2 wins in their last 10 outings. Their points per game sits at a lowly 0.70, and they have conceded 2.30 goals per game on average. At home, they have won just 28.57% of their last 7 matches, conceding 2.00 goals per game. Head-to-head history heavily favors the visitors. Varazdin have won 6 of the last 10 meetings, including a 2-1 victory at this exact venue in April 2026. Statistically, the expected goal environment also points to an away victory. Poisson modeling based on current scoring and conceding rates projects an expected goal value of 1.70 for Varazdin compared to 1.43 for Slaven Belupo. This mathematical edge, combined with Varazdin's superior shot accuracy (47.6% vs 31.1%) and higher shot volume (13.00 away per game), suggests they are well-equipped to break down a home side that has only kept 1 clean sheet in their last 10 games. Market odds currently list the away win at 2.70, implying a 37.0% probability. When cross-referenced with Varazdin's actual win probability derived from form and Poisson projections (~49.5%), this creates a substantial expected value (EV) edge of over 12%. While the Over 2.5 Goals market (1.85) also shows positive value, the clarity of the away side's dominance makes the straight win the most compelling angle. Slaven Belupo's defensive frailties make them vulnerable against a Varazdin attack that has found the net in 8 of their last 10 matches. Key Points: - NK Varazdin hold an 80% win rate in their last 10 games, averaging 2.40 points per match. - NK Slaven Belupo have won just 2 of their last 10, conceding 2.30 goals per game on average. - Varazdin have won 6 of the last 10 H2H encounters, including a 2-1 win at this venue earlier this year. - Poisson goal expectancy models project Varazdin to score 1.70 goals compared to Slaven Belupo's 1.43. - The away win is priced at 2.70, offering a significant mathematical edge over the implied probability. Our recommended bet is the Away Win at odds of 2.70.