Charlton host Preston in a Championship fixture that looks like a one-way street on the surface. The hosts are sitting third after two games with six points from two wins, while Preston are 20th with zero points from two losses. That gap in the table is the first warning sign for the visitors, but the deeper stats make the case even stronger. Charlton have been dangerous at home, winning 100% of their last home games and scoring an average of 2.00 goals while conceding just 1.00. Their recent form has been robust too: six wins, one draw and three losses in their last 10 games, with a 60% win rate and 1.90 points per game. Goals scored are stable, and their 3-game moving average of 1.67 goals shows they are not fading. The only real blemish is a heavy 5-1 loss to Tottenham in the League Cup, but that came away from home and against a top-flight opponent, so it does not undermine their Championship form. Preston, by contrast, have been poor for weeks. They have lost eight of their last 10 games, with zero wins and just two draws. Their away record is particularly weak: 100% losses in their last five away matches, with an average of 2.40 goals conceded. They have scored only 0.70 goals per game across their last 10, and their 3-game moving average of 0.67 goals shows they are struggling to find the back of the net. Their last two league matches were convincing defeats: 1-3 at Wolves and 0-4 to Everton in the League Cup. The head-to-head record is Preston's strongest argument. Charlton have not beaten Preston in the last three meetings at home, and Preston have won seven of the last eight encounters. That is a real counter-signal and explains why some might be cautious. However, current form, venue strength and goal expectancy all point the other way. The expected goals model gives Charlton 2.20 and Preston 1.00, a total of 3.20 goals, which supports a home advantage. The betting markets also reflect the home edge. Charlton are 2.15 favourites, with the draw at 3.40 and Preston at 3.65. The Over/Under market prices Over 2.5 at 2.17, but the fair probability is closer to 45%, leaving little value there. Under 2.5 at 1.75 has a small mathematical edge, but it is below the 6% threshold and the total goal expectancy of 3.20 makes it a risky call. In short, the combination of Charlton's strong home form, Preston's poor away record, the goal expectancy gap and the odds makes the home win the most compelling bet. The head-to-head history is a caution, but not enough to cancel out the current momentum. Key Points: - Charlton are 3rd with 6 points from two wins; Preston are 20th with 0 points from two losses. - Charlton have won 100% of their last home games, averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded. - Preston have lost 100% of their last five away games and conceded an average of 2.40 goals. - Goal expectancies favor Charlton: 2.20 to 1.00. - H2H favors Preston, with seven wins in the last eight meetings. - Home win odds are 2.15, offering a clear edge over the implied probability. Summary: The best bet is Charlton to win at 2.15.