Scarborough Athletic meet Southport on 29 August in the National League - North, with the home side coming into the clash with a strong recent run and Southport struggling badly away from home. Scarborough Athletic's last ten matches produced 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses, yet their recent home form is more encouraging. From their last four home games they have won 50% and lost 50%, while scoring 1.25 goals per game and conceding just 1.00. In their most recent three matches they have taken 7 points from 3, including a 3-0 win over Spennymoor Town and a 4-3 win at Hednesford Town, before the 2-1 loss at Chorley. Southport are a better-placed side overall, with 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in their last ten and a points average of 1.20, but their away form is a concern. From their last four away games they have not won, drawing 25% and losing 75%, while scoring only 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.75. Their recent form has improved, with a 4-1 win at Bedford Town, a 2-2 draw at Hednesford Town and a 1-1 draw with Buxton, but the away numbers suggest they have been struggling on the road. The head-to-head record is mixed, with Southport winning five of the nine previous meetings, but the most recent five games have been tighter. Scarborough Athletic won at home in 2025, beating Southport 2-0 and 1-0, and the latest meeting in January 2026 ended 1-1. That recent sequence gives the home side a little more confidence. Goal expectancy points strongly in Scarborough Athletic's favour, with the model expecting 2.00 home goals and just 1.00 from Southport. That is consistent with Scarborough's home defensive record and Southport's poor away goal-scoring. The betting market prices the home side at 1.90, implying a 52.6% chance of victory. The goal-expectancy model suggests a 58.8% probability of a home win, giving a 6.2% edge over the implied probability. Combined with Scarborough's home form, Southport's poor away record and the recent head-to-head trend, that edge is supported by multiple signals. Key Points: - Scarborough Athletic have won 50% of their last four home games, scoring 1.25 and conceding 1.00 per game. - Southport have not won their last four away matches, conceding 2.75 goals per game. - Goal expectancies favour Scarborough Athletic at 2.00 home goals versus 1.00 from Southport. - The last two home meetings at Scarborough ended with home wins for the Athletic side. - Home win odds of 1.90 offer a positive edge over the model probability. The value pick is the Home Win at 1.90.