Two sides sitting level on 11 points in the Serie C Girone B table meet at Campobasso on Saturday, and the numbers tell a clear story about who holds the edge here. Campobasso FC arrive in good rhythm. Their last five matches have produced two wins and two draws, with the only blemish being a 2-4 defeat to Gubbio back in September. The goals-scored trend is improving, with a 3-game moving average of 2.00 per match, and their home record over the last five fixtures shows a 40% win rate and just a 20% loss rate. At home they average 1.80 goals per game while conceding 1.40, and the Poisson model backs that up with a home expectancy of 1.80. Torres, by contrast, are in a worrying place on the road. Their last five away matches have produced a single win, one draw, and three losses — a 60% defeat rate that is the worst away record in the division. Their goals-scored trend is declining with a negative slope, and their RSI sits at 37.5, a clear oversold signal. On the road they average just 1.00 goals per game while leaking 1.80 per match, making them a team that struggles to create and is vulnerable at the back away from home. The head-to-head adds another layer. In four meetings between these sides, Campobasso have won 50% of their home fixtures against Torres, and three of the four encounters have seen both teams score with three also going over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting in January was a 2-2 draw, but the pattern of Campobasso holding their own at home is consistent. Fatigue is not a factor — both sides have had eight days rest, and Campobasso have played two matches in the last 14 days while Torres have managed just one. There is no congestion concern on either side. The betting market prices Campobasso at 2.15 for the win, which implies a 46.5% probability. When you stack the signals — Torres' 20% away win rate, their declining form and defensive vulnerability on the road, Campobasso's improving home output, the H2H edge, and the Poisson expectancy favouring the home side — the true probability sits closer to 52%. That gives a positive edge of roughly 5.5% over the bookmaker's implied figure, clearing the threshold for a worthwhile stake. The alternative markets don't offer the same value. Over 2.5 at 2.05 implies 48.8% against a fair of 47%, leaving almost no edge. BTTS Yes at 1.83 implies 54.6% against a fair of 51.3%, again a thin margin. The Under 2.5 and Draw markets both carry negative edge. The home win is the only market where the data and the price align in your favour. **Key Points:** - Torres have lost 60% of their last five away matches, the worst road record in the division. - Campobasso's home form is improving with a 3-game scoring average of 2.00 goals. - H2H: Campobasso hold a 50% home win record against Torres across four meetings. - Torres' away defensive record: 1.80 goals conceded per game. - Poisson expectancy favours Campobasso: 1.80 home vs 1.20 away. - Both teams have 8 days rest — no fatigue concern. - Torres' RSI of 37.5 signals a team in a form slump. **Summary:** The convergence of Torres' poor away record, their declining form, Campobasso's improving home output, and the H2H edge all point to the home side. At 2.15, the implied probability of 46.5% underprices the true likelihood of around 52%, giving a positive edge. The pick is **Campobasso FC to Win** at 2.15.