NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction - 28th February 2026

Third-placed NEC Nijmegen welcome Fortuna Sittard to town on Saturday evening, with the hosts looking to maintain their surprise title challenge against a mid-table side that has developed a serious allergy to clean sheets. While the league table suggests a straightforward home win, the underlying data points toward a more open, entertaining affair that should see both teams find the net. NEC have been the Eredivisie's surprise package this season, sitting pretty in third with 43 points from 24 games. Their recent form is formidable—unbeaten in nine of their last ten outings with six wins and three draws, averaging 2.10 points per game. They've been particularly impressive against quality opposition, drawing 1-1 away at Ajax (who boast 1.80 points per game form) and 1-1 at Sparta Rotterdam (2.20 PPG form), while also securing a statement 3-1 victory at AZ Alkmaar. However, their defence isn't impenetrable—they've kept just one clean sheet in their last ten and conceded in 90% of those matches, including a concerning 1-3 home defeat to struggling Utrecht. Fortuna Sittard arrive in 11th place with a Jekyll and Hyde record that makes them unpredictable but rarely boring. They've won just three of their last ten, yet their attacking output remains respectable at 1.70 goals per game. Crucially, they have failed to keep a single clean sheet in their last ten outings—a statistic that screams opportunity for NEC's potent attack. Yet Fortuna have shown they can score against anyone, netting in defeats to Ajax (1-4) and PSV (1-2), and producing a stunning 4-3 victory over AZ Alkmaar. Their away form shows they average 1.20 goals per game on the road, and with NEC conceding 1.40 per game at home, the visitors should get chances. The head-to-head record favours NEC, particularly at home where they hold a 60% win rate against Fortuna. However, Fortuna won the reverse fixture 3-2 earlier this season, and historically these meetings see goals—77.8% of their nine encounters have seen both teams score, with an average of 3.33 goals per game. Statistically, this matchup has fireworks written all over it. NEC generate 15.6 shots per game with 56.3% possession, while Fortuna's games average 3.8 total goals (1.70 scored, 2.10 conceded). The Poisson goal expectancies (2.00 for NEC, 1.30 for Fortuna) suggest a 2-1 or 3-1 scoreline is most likely. Both teams have seen BTTS land in 90% of their respective last ten matches—a staggering symmetry that the market hasn't fully priced in. **Key Points:** • NEC have kept just 1 clean sheet in their last 10 games (10% clean sheet rate) • Fortuna have kept 0 clean sheets in their last 10 games (0% clean sheet rate) • Both teams have seen BTTS in 90% of their last 10 matches respectively • Fortuna's away games average 3.2 goals per game (1.20 scored, 2.00 conceded) • The reverse fixture earlier this season finished 3-2 to Fortuna • NEC's last 10 games average 3.5 goals per game (2.10 scored, 1.40 conceded) While NEC at 1.44 looks a safe bet on paper, the value has been squeezed out given Fortuna's ability to score against top sides. Instead, the Both Teams to Score market offers genuine value at 1.62. With Fortuna incapable of keeping clean sheets and NEC's high-scoring but leaky defence, this should be an open game with goals at both ends.