Vasco DA Gama vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction - 5th February 2026

The early Serie A season brings an intriguing clash as Vasco DA Gama, looking to bounce back from an opening defeat, host a Chapecoense-sc side riding high after a spectacular start. The data paints a clear picture of two teams in contrasting form, but with a head-to-head history that suggests this could be closer than the league table indicates. Vasco's 2026 campaign began with a disappointing 2-1 loss away to Mirassol. Their recent form over the last ten matches shows a team struggling for consistency, with just three wins, three draws, and four defeats. However, their home performances offer a glimmer of hope. In their last four matches at their own ground, they've won half, scoring at a healthy rate of 1.75 goals per game, albeit while conceding 1.25. Victories like the 4-2 win over CFRJ / Maricá and the 3-0 triumph against Boavista SC show they can be potent, but the 0-0 draw with Nova Iguaçu and the 1-2 loss to Corinthians highlight their vulnerability. Chapecoense-sc, in stark contrast, are flying. They sit second in the table after dismantling Santos 4-2 in their opener, part of an impressive run of six wins, three draws, and just one loss in their last ten outings. They've netted 19 times in that period, averaging 1.90 goals per game. Their away form is solid if not spectacular, with a 40% win rate from their last five road trips, scoring 1.20 and conceding 1.20 per game. Their most recent away match was a confident 2-1 victory over a decent Criciuma side. The head-to-head record between these sides is the most compelling narrative for bettors. Of their nine previous meetings, a staggering six have ended all square. More importantly for our analysis, both teams have found the net in seven of those nine clashes (78%). The last two meetings, both in 2022, ended 0-0, but the three before that featured goals for both sides. This historical trend, combined with both teams' current attacking and defensive profiles, is a key statistical pillar. **Key Points:** * **Form Contrast:** Chapecoense-sc are in excellent form (6W, 3D, 1L last 10) compared to Vasco's struggles (3W, 3D, 4L). * **Home vs. Away Scoring:** Vasco averages 1.75 goals per game at home. Chapecoense averages 1.20 goals per game away. * **Defensive Records:** Vasco concedes 1.25 goals per game at home. Chapecoense concedes 1.20 goals per game on the road. * **Head-to-Head Dominance:** Draws are common (6/9), but Both Teams to Score is even more prevalent (7/9). * **Recent Results:** Vasco lost 2-1 to Mirassol; Chapecoense won 4-2 vs Santos and 2-1 at Criciuma. **Summary & Betting Verdict:** While Chapecoense-sc arrive as the form team, Vasco's home attacking numbers suggest they can trouble any defence. The historical data screams that goals at both ends are the norm when these two meet. With odds of 1.99 for Both Teams to Score - Yes offering clear value against a probability we assess closer to 58%, this represents the standout betting angle. The draw at 3.80 is also tempting given the history, but the BTTS market provides a stronger combination of historical evidence, current form trends, and positive expected value.