Swansea vs Derby Prediction - 25th November 2025

This Championship clash presents a fascinating contrast in form and momentum. Swansea sit perilously close to the relegation zone in 19th place, having managed just 17 points from 16 games. Their recent form makes grim reading: 2 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses from their last 10 matches, with a paltry 0.80 points per game average. The home side's defensive record is particularly alarming. They're shipping goals at an alarming rate, conceding 1.90 per game overall and a disastrous 2.40 per game at home. Recent results paint a bleak picture - a 3-0 thrashing at Bristol City, a humiliating 1-4 home defeat to Ipswich, and a 2-1 loss at Preston. Their only victories in the last 10 came against struggling Norwich (2-1) and Blackburn (2-1 away). Derby, by contrast, are flying high in 9th place with 23 points and look like a completely different proposition. Their recent form reads 5 wins, 3 draws, and just 2 losses, translating to an impressive 1.80 points per game. Most importantly for this fixture, their away form is formidable - 50% win rate on their travels, scoring 1.50 goals per game while keeping things tight at the back with just 1.00 conceded. The visitors' recent away performances include impressive victories at Blackburn (2-1), Sheffield Utd (3-1), and they only narrowly lost 2-3 to Watford in their last outing. They've also kept clean sheets against QPR and Norwich at home, showing defensive solidity that Swansea can only dream of. While the head-to-head record historically favors Swansea (4-3-2 overall, 3-1-1 at home), current form tells a much different story. Swansea are leaking goals for fun at home, while Derby are demonstrating the kind of consistency and defensive organization that typically earns results on the road. The statistical trends support this narrative - Swansea's goals conceded trend is worsening while Derby's defensive numbers remain solid. With Swansea averaging just 0.90 goals scored per game and Derby boasting a much healthier 1.40, the visitors look well-placed to exploit the home side's vulnerabilities. Key Points: • Swansea's home form is dire: 20% win rate, 2.40 goals conceded per game • Derby's away form is strong: 50% win rate, 1.50 goals scored per game • Recent form heavily favors Derby: 1.80 PPG vs Swansea's 0.80 PPG • Swansea's defensive record (1.90 conceded per game) vs Derby's (1.00 conceded per game) • Derby have won 5 of their last 10 games, Swansea just 2 Given the stark contrast in current form, defensive records, and away vs home performances, Derby represent outstanding value at 3.75 to continue their solid away run against a Swansea side that appears to be in freefall.