Partick vs ST Mirren Prediction - 21st May 2026

Partick host ST Mirren in a Premiership clash that presents a compelling value opportunity on the home side. Entering this fixture, Partick arrive with a remarkable 10-game unbeaten record, boasting four wins, six draws, and zero losses. Their defensive structure at home is particularly imposing, conceding just 0.60 goals per game while maintaining a 40% clean sheet rate. This defensive resilience is backed by a stable points trend and a declining goals-conceded trajectory over their recent fixtures. ST Mirren, conversely, have struggled to find consistent momentum, recording just three wins in their last 10 matches across all competitions. Their away form shows a 1.20 goals scored average but a 1.00 goals conceded average, highlighting their vulnerability on the road. Recent results underscore this fragility, including heavy defeats such as a 0-3 loss to Kilmarnock and consecutive shutout losses against Dundee and Livingston. While they managed a 2-0 away win at Aberdeen, their overall away win rate sits at 40%, and they have failed to keep a clean sheet in 80% of their recent outings. The mathematical model projects a low-scoring environment, with goal expectancies of 1.30 for Partick at home and 0.90 for ST Mirren away. This yields a combined expected total of roughly 2.20 goals, heavily favoring a tight, tactical contest. Partick's home venue performance further reinforces this, with a 60% home win rate and an average of 1.60 goals scored per game at home. The head-to-head record shows Partick winning two of the last three meetings at this ground, with the most recent encounter ending 1-2 to ST Mirren, though Partick's current form vastly outpaces that historical snapshot. When evaluating the betting market, the Home Win is priced at 2.62. The implied probability of this odds is approximately 38.2%. Based on the Poisson distribution and the strong underlying metrics—Partick's 0% loss rate in their last 10, their 0.60 goals conceded at home, and ST Mirren's 1.20 goals conceded average—the fair probability for a home victory sits closer to 41%. This creates a mathematical edge of approximately 7.4% over the bookmaker's implied probability, comfortably clearing the 6% value threshold. The combination of Partick's ironclad home defense, ST Mirren's away vulnerabilities, and the low expected goal total makes the home side the most logical selection. While draws are frequent in Partick's record, the value and confirmatory signals strongly align with the home victory market. Summary: Based on Partick's 10-game unbeaten home run, defensive metrics, and a 7.4% mathematical edge over the market, the recommended bet is the Home Win at 2.62.