Cuiaba vs Novorizontino Prediction - 16th May 2026

The Serie B clash between Cuiaba and Novorizontino presents a stark contrast in form and table position, with the visitors carrying significant momentum into this fixture. Novorizontino sits comfortably in 6th place with 12 points from 8 matches, boasting a 50% win rate and an impressive 1.80 points per game. In stark contrast, Cuiaba languishes in 16th place with just 9 points, averaging a mere 0.80 points per game and failing to win any of their last four home fixtures. Novorizontino's away record is particularly robust, yielding two wins, two draws, and only one loss in their last five road trips. They are averaging 1.80 goals scored per away game while conceding 1.20. Cuiaba, however, struggles to find the back of the net at home, averaging just 1.00 goal per game, and have conceded 1.75 goals on average at their own stadium. The mathematical goal expectancy model projects Novorizontino to score 1.77 goals against Cuiaba's 1.10, pointing towards a comfortable away victory. Head-to-head history heavily favors the visitors. Novorizontino has won both previous encounters, including a 1-0 victory at this exact venue last October and a dominant 3-0 win earlier in the season. Cuiaba has failed to score in both meetings and holds a 0% win rate against Novorizontino at home. Statistically, Cuiaba's attacking metrics are in decline, with a 10% win rate over their last 10 games and a goal-scoring average of just 0.60 per match. Meanwhile, Novorizontino's goal-scoring trend is improving, with their 3-game moving average jumping to 2.00 goals. Despite Cuiaba's slight home advantage, their defensive vulnerabilities combined with Novorizontino's consistent away output make the away side the clear value pick. At odds of 3.30, the bookmakers offer a price that undervalues Novorizontino's current form, H2H dominance, and superior goal expectancy. Key Points: - Novorizontino sits 6th in Serie B with a 50% win rate, while Cuiaba is 16th with a 10% win rate. - The visitors have won both previous meetings, including a 1-0 away win at this venue last October. - Cuiaba has failed to win their last four home games, averaging 1.75 goals conceded per match. - Novorizontino averages 1.80 goals scored per away game and has an improving scoring trend. - Goal expectancy models project Novorizontino to score 1.77 goals against Cuiaba's 1.10. We are backing the Away Win for Novorizontino to secure all three points on the road.