Bologna vs Sassuolo Prediction - 28th December 2025

The Serie A action returns after the festive break with an intriguing Emilia-Romagna clash as Bologna host Sassuolo at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. On paper, this looks like a straightforward home win for the side sitting comfortably in sixth place, but dig a little deeper into the recent results and you'll find a much more complex picture that presents some interesting betting opportunities. Bologna's league position of sixth with 25 points from 15 games tells one story, but their recent form tells another. They've failed to win any of their last three competitive matches, suffering a 2-0 defeat to Napoli in the Super Cup, a 1-1 draw with Inter in the same competition, and most concerningly, a 1-0 home loss to Juventus in Serie A. Their three-game moving average shows just 0.33 goals scored and 0.33 points per game – numbers that should worry any bettor considering them at short odds. Yes, they've had some impressive results this season including that 2-0 victory over Napoli back in November, but momentum is currently against them. Sassuolo, sitting tenth with 21 points, have been the definition of inconsistency. Their recent results show they can be brilliant one week and baffling the next. They followed up an impressive 2-2 draw away at second-placed AC Milan with a disappointing 1-0 home defeat to Torino. Before that, they smashed Fiorentina 3-1 at home and recorded a stunning 3-0 away victory at Atalanta. This Jekyll and Hyde nature makes them dangerous opponents, especially on the road where they've taken points from Milan and demolished Atalanta. The head-to-head history between these sides is perfectly balanced with three wins each and three draws from nine meetings. More importantly for our betting analysis, these matches have consistently delivered entertainment. Both teams have scored in seven of those nine encounters, and six have featured over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting finished 4-2, continuing this high-scoring trend. Statistically, Bologna holds the edge in most categories. They average 1.67 goals per home game compared to Sassuolo's 1.40 away, and they dominate possession (53% vs 47.2%) while creating more chances (15.4 shots per game vs 11.5). However, their defensive solidity at home has been questionable with 1.17 goals conceded per game, and they've kept clean sheets in just 20% of their last ten matches. Sassuolo's away performances have actually been better than their home form this season, with a 40% win rate on the road compared to just 20% at home. They've scored in seven of their last ten matches and will fancy their chances against a Bologna side that has conceded in eight of their last ten. **Key Points:** * Bologna have lost three consecutive competitive matches and are in poor recent form * Sassuolo have shown they can get results away, drawing at AC Milan and winning at Atalanta * Head-to-head history strongly favors goals: BTTS in 7 of 9 meetings, Over 2.5 in 6 of 9 * Bologna have conceded in 8 of their last 10 matches * Sassuolo have scored in 7 of their last 10 matches * Bologna's three-game moving average shows just 0.33 goals scored per game From a betting perspective, the home win at 1.75 offers poor value given Bologna's recent struggles. The draw at 3.60 is more interesting but doesn't jump off the page. Where the real value lies is in the goals markets. With both teams scoring in 78% of historical meetings and both sides showing defensive vulnerabilities, **Both Teams to Score - Yes** at 1.91 represents excellent value. The historical data, current form, and statistical profiles all point toward both nets being found in this Emilia-Romagna derby.