Empoli vs Cesena Prediction - 28th February 2026

Serie B's mid-table throws up an intriguing clash as Empoli host Cesena, with both sides desperate to halt inconsistent runs but heading in opposite directions. While the table shows Cesena three places higher in 8th with 37 points, their recent form suggests a side in freefall, whereas Empoli are showing subtle signs of improvement despite their inability to turn draws into wins at home. Empoli's home record makes for grim reading on the surface—zero wins in their last five on their own patch, with three draws and two defeats. However, context is crucial. Those home draws came against promotion-chasing Frosinone (2-2) and Modena (0-0), while they also held Reggiana 1-1. Their only home defeat in this sequence against top-tier opposition was a narrow 1-2 loss to Juve Stabia. The Azzurri are creating chances (11.6 shots per game) but suffering from poor finishing (-0.82 delta), scoring just 0.60 goals per game at home. Defensively, they're relatively solid here, conceding just 1.00 per game. Cesena arrive in Tuscany with baggage. They've lost seven of their last ten matches, shipping 20 goals in the process. Their away form is particularly alarming—75% loss rate in their last four road trips, conceding 2.25 goals per game while struggling to keep clean sheets (just 10% clean sheet rate overall). Recent away defeats include a 3-1 drubbing at Avellino and a 4-0 hammering by Venezia. Like Empoli, they're underperforming their expected goals (-0.78 delta), but unlike Empoli, their trends are declining across the board. The head-to-head record heavily favors the hosts. Empoli are unbeaten in six against Cesena (4 wins, 2 draws) and secured a 1-0 victory in the reverse fixture just seven weeks ago. That match epitomized Cesena's struggles—they couldn't break down Empoli's defense despite home advantage. **Key Points:** • Empoli are unbeaten in 6 against Cesena (4W-2D), including a 1-0 win in January's reverse fixture • Cesena have lost 7 of their last 10 games, conceding 20 goals (2.00 per game average) • Empoli's last 5 home games: 0 wins, but 3 draws against sides averaging 1.63 points per game • Cesena's away defensive record: conceding 2.25 goals per game in last 4 road trips • Both teams underperforming expected goals (Empoli -0.82, Cesena -0.78), suggesting wasteful finishing • Empoli showing improving trends in goals scored/conceded; Cesena declining in all metrics Despite Empoli's winless home run, the data points toward home advantage finally telling. Cesena's defensive frailties on the road (2.25 conceded per game) meet an Empoli side that, while profligate, has faced tougher home opposition recently. At 2.35, the home win offers solid value given the H2H dominance and Cesena's alarming trajectory. The reverse fixture finished 1-0, and another tight Empoli victory looks on the cards.