HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica Prediction - 12th April 2026

HNK Hajduk Split welcomes HNK Gorica to the Poljud Stadium in a key HNL clash. The league table tells a clear story: Hajduk sits in 2nd place with 56 points, chasing the league leaders, while Gorica struggles in 7th with just 32 points. This 24-point gap highlights the disparity in quality and consistency between the two sides. Hajduk's recent form is robust. In their last 10 games, they have secured 6 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses. Their home performance is particularly potent, with a 75% win rate in their last 4 home fixtures. Notably, their head-to-head record at home against Gorica is flawless: 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses. While Gorica did win the most recent encounter, that match was played in Gorica's home city, leaving Hajduk's home fortress intact. Statistically, Hajduk dominates possession and shot creation. They average 16.00 shots per game compared to Gorica's 11.62. Hajduk's shot accuracy sits at 41.8%, significantly higher than Gorica's 34.5%. Goal expectancy models suggest Hajduk will score around 1.50 goals at home, while Gorica is expected to score 1.17 goals away. Looking at recent results, Hajduk has shown high scoring potential, recording a 6-0 victory against Vukovar and a 3-1 win against Istra. Gorica's defense has been leaky, conceding 1.70 goals per game on average, with 1.50 goals conceded per game away. The betting market prices a Hajduk win at 1.67. This implies a probability of approximately 59.9%. However, considering the H2H home dominance and current form, the true probability is likely closer to 70%. This creates a value edge of roughly 10%, exceeding the 6% threshold required for a worthwhile bet. Key Points: - Hajduk is 2nd in HNL (56 pts), Gorica is 7th (32 pts). - Hajduk has a 100% win rate at home against Gorica (5-0-0). - Hajduk's last 4 home games: 3 wins, 1 loss (75% win rate). - Hajduk averages 16.00 shots per game vs Gorica's 11.62. - Odds for Home Win: 1.67. Recommendation: Based on the strong home record and table position, the value lies with HNK Hajduk Split to win.