Benevento vs Cavese Prediction - 11th April 2026

The Serie C - Girone C fixture between Benevento and Cavese presents a classic case of a top-tier team hosting a relegation-battling side. As of the current date, Benevento sits comfortably at the summit of the table with 80 points from 35 matches, while Cavese languishes in 13th place with just 37 points. This 43-point gap highlights a significant disparity in quality and consistency between the two clubs. Benevento's recent form has been exceptional. Over their last 10 games, the home side has secured 7 wins, 2 draws, and only 1 loss, boasting a 70% win rate. Their offensive output is robust, averaging 1.70 goals per game over this period, while their defense has been solid, conceding just 0.60 goals per game. At home specifically, Benevento has maintained a 50% win rate in their last 4 home fixtures, scoring 1.25 goals per game and conceding 0.75. Conversely, Cavese is struggling. Their last 10 games show only 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, resulting in a 30% win rate. Their goal expectancy is notably lower, averaging 0.90 goals scored per game. Away from home, their performance is particularly concerning; in their last 4 away games, they have not secured a single win (0% win rate), averaging just 0.75 goals scored and conceding 1.75 goals per game. This defensive frailty away from home is a major concern. The head-to-head record heavily favors Benevento. In the three previous meetings, Benevento has won all three matches, keeping a clean sheet in one of them. The most recent encounter ended 1-0 in favor of Benevento. This historical dominance, combined with the current form gap, suggests a high probability of a home victory. From a betting perspective, the odds for a Benevento win are set at 1.70. Given the massive points gap, the superior recent form, and the perfect H2H record, the implied probability of 58.82% appears undervalued compared to the likely actual probability of around 65%. This creates a value opportunity that meets the minimum edge threshold. While the goal expectancy suggests a total of 2.25 goals (favoring Under 2.5), the odds for Under 2.5 do not offer sufficient value. Therefore, the most logical selection is the Home Win.