Empoli vs Modena Prediction - 31st January 2026

The Serie B clash between Empoli and Modena presents an intriguing battle between a mid-table side with defensive resilience and a top-six team struggling for consistency. On paper, Modena sits comfortably in 6th place with 33 points, while Empoli languishes in 10th with 27. However, the recent form guide tells a very different story, and it's this divergence that creates a fascinating betting angle. Empoli's last ten matches show a team capable of punching above its weight, securing five wins and a draw. More impressively, they've kept a clean sheet in 50% of those games, conceding just 10 goals. Their recent 1-1 draw against league leaders Frosinone and a 1-0 away victory at a strong Cesena side demonstrate they can compete with the best. Yes, a concerning 3-0 loss to Carrarese and a 0-1 home defeat to Sudtirol show vulnerability, but the underlying defensive numbers are solid: averaging just 1.00 goal conceded per game at home. Modena, despite their lofty league position, are in a worrying slump. With just two wins in their last ten outings, they've averaged a meager 0.90 points per game. Their attack has sputtered, scoring only nine times in that period. While they managed a commendable 0-0 draw against a high-flying Palermo, defeats to Padova, Monza, and Venezia highlight their struggles against varied opposition. Their away form shows a 40% win rate, but they've scored more on the road (1.20 per game) than at home, offering a glimmer of hope. The head-to-head record is minimal, with Modena winning the only previous encounter 2-1 earlier this season. The statistical battle is intriguing: Modena dominates the peripheral numbers, averaging 18.3 shots and 53% possession away from home, compared to Empoli's 11.8 shots and 46% possession at home. However, football isn't played on the stat sheet alone—it's about putting the ball in the net and keeping it out of your own. Empoli's superior conversion and defensive organization, evidenced by their 50% clean sheet rate, trumps Modena's volume of possession and shots. When we look at the 'Both Teams to Score' market, the data screams value. Empoli have seen both teams score in just 20% of their last ten matches. Modena's figure is higher at 40%, but still below average. Combining these probabilities suggests a strong likelihood that at least one team fails to find the net. Empoli's defensive discipline at home, conceding just one goal per game on average, is poised to nullify a Modena attack that has mustered only 0.90 goals per game over their last ten. **Key Points:** * Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 5 of their last 10 matches (50% rate). * Modena are in poor form, with only 2 wins in their last 10 games. * 'Both Teams to Score' has landed in only 20% of Empoli's recent matches. * Modena's attack is struggling, averaging just 0.90 goals per game over their last 10. * The odds of 1.91 for 'Both Teams to Score - No' offer significant value against the implied probability. **Summary & Betting Verdict:** This is a classic case of league position being deceptive versus current momentum and underlying trends. Modena's poor recent form and impotent attack are set to collide with an Empoli side that specializes in low-scoring, defensively sound performances at home. The market has overvalued Modena's league standing and undervalued Empoli's defensive prowess. The smart play here is on at least one team drawing a blank. The value bet is **Both Teams to Score - No** at attractive odds of 1.91.