Wolves vs Crystal Palace Prediction - 22nd November 2025

This Saturday afternoon fixture presents one of the most mismatches of the Premier League season as bottom-placed Wolves host Crystal Palace. The gulf in form and confidence between these two sides is staggering, and the data points strongly toward an away victory. Wolves are having a disastrous campaign, sitting rock bottom with just 2 points from 11 games. Their recent form makes for grim reading - 1 win, 2 draws, and 7 losses in their last 10 matches. They've been leaking goals at an alarming rate, conceding 2.1 per game while only managing 1.0 at the other end. Their home record offers little solace either, with just a 20% win rate and 2.2 goals conceded per home game. Recent results paint a bleak picture: 3-0 defeats to Chelsea and Fulham, a 4-3 League Cup loss to Chelsea, and a 3-2 home loss to Burnley. Their only two Premier League points came from 1-1 draws against Brighton and Tottenham. Crystal Palace, by contrast, are enjoying a solid season in 10th place with 17 points. Their recent form shows 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses from 10 games, with a much more balanced record of 1.6 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game. Defensively they've been impressive with 4 clean sheets in their last 10 matches. Their away form, while sample size is smaller, shows a 50% win rate with only 0.75 goals conceded per away game. Recent performances include a 3-1 win over AZ Alkmaar, a 2-0 victory against Brentford, and a stunning 3-0 League Cup triumph at Liverpool. The head-to-head record heavily favors Palace too, with 7 wins, 1 draw, and just 1 win for Wolves in 9 meetings. The last five encounters have all produced over 2.5 goals, with Palace winning four of them. Recent meetings include a 4-2 victory and a 3-3 draw. Looking at the attacking stats, Palace average more shots (14.2 vs 10.6) and shots on target (5.1 vs 3.5) than Wolves, while also maintaining better possession accuracy away from home (79.5% vs 80.6% for Wolves at home - surprisingly close). The goal expectancy model gives Palace 1.85 expected goals vs Wolves' 1.27, which aligns with the form data. With Palace in confident mood and Wolves seemingly unable to stop conceding goals, the away win at 1.95 represents excellent value. Palace have shown they can score against anyone (including Liverpool twice this season) and Wolves' defensive record suggests they'll concede again.