Tamworth vs Altrincham Prediction - 24th February 2026

Tuesday night in the National League brings together two mid-table sides with contrasting fortunes as 13th-placed Tamworth host 15th-placed Altrincham. While just two points separate them in the standings, their recent trajectories tell very different stories—yet the data points firmly toward another share of the spoils at The Lamb Ground. Tamworth have become the division's draw specialists, churning out seven stalemates in their last ten outings. Their recent sequence reads like a broken record: 0-0 against Boston United, 1-1 versus Aldershot Town, 2-2 at Morecambe, and 1-1 against Hartlepool. That's four consecutive league draws, underpinned by a home win rate of just 14.29% from their last seven matches. They're scoring a meagre 0.71 goals per game at home, but crucially, they're keeping things tight at the back with a 40% clean sheet rate and conceding exactly 1.00 goal per game on average. The underlying numbers support this defensive solidity. Their goal expectancy sits at 0.98, and their recent form shows declining goals conceded—a trend that suggests they're becoming harder to break down even if they struggle to win. The 0-0 against promotion-chasing Boston United (who average 1.70 goals per game) demonstrates their ability to frustrate better opposition. Altrincham arrive with superficially better form—three wins in their last ten compared to Tamworth's solitary victory—but peel back the layers and the picture changes. Their away record is abysmal: zero wins in their last four road trips, scoring just 0.50 goals per game away from home while shipping 1.25. Their recent 2-1 win against Braintree and 1-0 victory over Wealdstone were both at home, masking their travel sickness. The goal expectancy for Altrincham sits at just 0.75, reflecting their struggles to find the net on the road. While their overall trend data shows improvement (goals conceded declining, points trending upward), this momentum is largely home-based and unlikely to translate against Tamworth's stubborn defence. The head-to-head record offers little separation—one win apiece and a draw from three meetings—with both teams scoring in all three encounters. However, the most recent clash on October 1st saw Altrincham edge a 2-1 thriller, though Tamworth's current defensive setup is significantly more robust than it was earlier in the campaign. **Key Points:** • Tamworth have drawn 70% of their last 10 matches (7 out of 10) • Altrincham have failed to win any of their last 4 away games (0% win rate) • Goal expectancies suggest a low-scoring affair: Home 0.98, Away 0.75 (total 1.73) • Tamworth have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 10 games (40% clean sheet rate) • Altrincham averaging just 0.50 goals per game away from home • Current odds of 3.30 for the draw imply only a 30.3% probability—undervaluing Tamworth's draw tendency **Summary:** With Tamworth unable to win at home but equally difficult to beat, and Altrincham posing little attacking threat on their travels, this has all the hallmarks of another deadlock. The draw at 3.30 represents excellent value given the home side's 70% draw rate in recent weeks and the visitors' inability to secure away victories. Expect another tight, tactical affair with limited clear-cut chances.