Hull City vs Derby Prediction - 24th February 2026

Hull City welcome Derby to the MKM Stadium on Tuesday night in a crucial Championship clash that could have significant implications for the playoff race. The Tigers currently sit fifth in the table with 54 points from 32 games, while Derby occupy eighth spot with 48 points, making this a six-pointer in the truest sense. However, the form guide presents a fascinating paradox that sharp bettors will have already spotted. Hull have been Jekyll and Hyde this season, displaying remarkable split personality disorder between their home and away performances. While they've won their last three away league matches – scoring seven goals in the process with impressive victories at Preston (3-0), Southampton (2-1) and Blackburn (1-0) – their home form has been nothing short of disastrous. The Tigers have won just one of their last seven at the MKM Stadium (14.29% win rate), scoring a paltry 0.71 goals per game while leaking 1.71 at the other end. Their recent 1-3 defeat to QPR, 2-3 loss to Bristol City and 0-4 FA Cup drubbing by Chelsea have exposed serious defensive frailties on home soil. Derby, meanwhile, arrive with the opposite trajectory. The Rams have been road warriors recently, winning three of their last four away fixtures (75% win rate) and netting exactly two goals per game on their travels. Their recent 5-0 demolition of Bristol City away from home was a statement result, and while they stumbled 0-2 at Watford last time out, their away day pedigree is undeniable. Derby have conceded just 0.75 goals per game in their last four away matches, keeping things tight at the back while being clinical up front. The historical data heavily favors the visitors. Derby have dominated this fixture historically, winning seven of the last nine meetings between these sides. Hull have managed just one victory in that sequence, with Derby winning the reverse fixture 2-1 earlier this season. At the MKM Stadium specifically, Derby have won three of the last four visits, suggesting they relish this particular assignment. From a statistical standpoint, the goal expectancies paint a clear picture. The models suggest Derby will generate 1.86 expected goals to Hull's 0.73, reflecting the visitors' superior attacking output on the road against the hosts' defensive struggles at home. Both sides have kept 40% clean sheets in their last ten games, but Hull's inability to score at home – coupled with Derby's prolific away form – suggests the Rams carry the greater threat. Key Points: • Hull have won just 1 of their last 7 home games (14.29% win rate) and lost their last 3 matches in all competitions • Derby have won 3 of their last 4 away games (75% win rate), scoring 2 goals per game on the road • Derby hold a dominant head-to-head record with 7 wins from the last 9 meetings • Hull's home goal output sits at just 0.71 per game while conceding 1.71 • Derby's away attack averages 2.00 goals per game with a solid defensive record of 0.75 conceded Summary: The market has Hull as favorites at 2.24, but the venue-specific form and head-to-head history scream value in the away win. Derby's away day excellence (75% win rate) clashes perfectly with Hull's home struggles (14% win rate), while the Rams' psychological edge from winning seven of the last nine meetings cannot be ignored. At odds of 3.13, Derby represent excellent value for bettors willing to trust the data over the league table. The Rams' superior away attacking metrics and Hull's defensive leaks at home make the away win the standout selection.