Southport vs Leamington Prediction - 11th April 2026

Southport hosts Leamington in the National League North on April 11, 2026. This fixture presents a classic clash of form versus history. Southport arrives in exceptional shape, having secured 7 wins in their last 10 games, averaging 2.20 points per game. Their offensive output is robust, with 1.70 goals scored per game across that span. Conversely, Leamington is struggling significantly, managing only 2 wins in their last 10 matches with a points per game average of just 0.70. They have conceded 2.30 goals per game in that same period. The head-to-head record favors Leamington historically, with 5 wins to Southport's 1 in 8 meetings. However, current performance metrics suggest a shift in momentum. Southport's home defense concedes 1.50 goals per game, while Leamington's away attack averages 1.00 goals per game. Crucially, Leamington has recorded zero clean sheets in their last 10 games, indicating a porous defense that consistently concedes goals. Statistical analysis highlights a strong probability for goals at both ends. Southport has seen both teams score in 80% of their last 10 games. Leamington matches this with an 80% BTTS rate in their recent fixtures. The goal expectancy model suggests a total of 3.25 goals (Home 2.00, Away 1.25), which strongly supports an Over 2.5 Goals scenario, but the BTTS market offers superior value. The bookmakers have priced Both Teams To Score - Yes at 1.95. This implies a probability of 51.3%. Given the 80% BTTS rates for both sides and Leamington's zero clean sheets, the true probability is estimated around 64%. This creates a significant edge of over 12%, comfortably exceeding the 6% threshold required for value. The odds are also above the 1.60 floor, ensuring long-term profitability potential. In summary, while Southport is the favorite to win, the most statistically supported value lies in the goal markets. The defensive frailties of Leamington combined with Southport's consistent scoring make this the optimal selection. **Recommendation: Both Teams To Score - Yes**