Kilmarnock vs Livingston Prediction - 21st March 2026

The Scottish Premiership fixture between Kilmarnock and Livingston presents a clash of mid-table struggles with distinct home/away dynamics. Kilmarnock sits 11th with 24 points, while Livingston languishes at the bottom in 12th with just 15 points after 30 games. The key to this preview lies in the home/away split and recent form. Kilmarnock's home performance is a significant factor. Over their last 5 home games, the team has achieved a 60% win rate, averaging 2.20 goals scored per game compared to 1.60 conceded. This offensive output at Rugby Park provides a solid foundation for a home victory. Their recent 1-0 win against Heart Of Midlothian on 2026-03-14 reinforces this attacking capability. In stark contrast, Livingston's away form is dire. They have not won a single game in their last 10 matches overall, and specifically in their last 4 away games, their win rate is 0%. They have drawn 75% of those away fixtures. Their away goal expectancy is 1.25 scored and 2.25 conceded. The head-to-head record further favors the home side; Kilmarnock has won 4 of the last 9 meetings, with a 66.67% win rate when hosting Livingston. The betting odds reflect this disparity. Kilmarnock is priced at 1.85 for a home win, implying a 54% probability. Given Livingston's total lack of wins in 10 games and Kilmarnock's 60% home win rate, the market seems to undervalue the home side. The expected goals calculation (Home 2.23, Away 1.43) suggests a high probability of goals, but the primary value lies in the result. Livingston's defensive frailty away (2.25 goals conceded per game) combined with Kilmarnock's home scoring rate (2.20) creates a favorable environment for the home team to secure three points. With Livingston drawing 7 of their last 10 games, the draw is a risk, but the home advantage and H2H dominance make the win the superior value. **Key Points:** - Kilmarnock Home Win Rate: 60% (Last 5 home games) - Livingston Away Win Rate: 0% (Last 4 away games) - H2H Home Record: Kilmarnock wins 4 of 9 meetings at home (66.67%) - Kilmarnock Home Goals/Game: 2.20 - Livingston Away Conceded/Game: 2.25 **Summary:** Based on Livingston's 0% away win rate and Kilmarnock's strong home form, the **Home Win** is the recommended selection at 1.85.