Alaves vs Valencia Prediction - 15th September 2026

Alaves enter this La Liga fixture in excellent form, currently sitting in 3rd place with 10 points from their opening five matches. Their consistency at home has been a hallmark of their early season success, boasting a 66.67% win rate over their last six home games. During this period, they have been prolific in front of goal, averaging 2.33 goals per game while maintaining a disciplined defensive record, conceding just 0.83 goals per game. In stark contrast, Valencia is enduring a nightmare start to the 2026 campaign. They currently occupy the bottom of the table in 20th place, having managed only a single draw and four losses in five games. Their defensive vulnerabilities are glaring, as they have conceded an average of 1.60 goals per game so far. While they managed a 0-0 draw against Celta Vigo, their recent results—including a heavy 0-5 defeat to Barcelona and a 1-0 loss to Sevilla—suggest a team struggling to find any offensive rhythm or defensive stability. The head-to-head history further favors the hosts. Alaves has dominated this fixture at home, maintaining a 75% win rate against Valencia in their previous meetings at this venue. While Valencia managed a 2-3 victory in March, the current trajectories of both clubs are diametrically opposed. Alaves' goal expectancy (λ) of 1.92 at home compared to Valencia's meager 0.92 away suggests a match where the home side will likely dictate the pace and find the back of the net multiple times. With Valencia's points trend declining and Alaves' points trend improving, the disparity in quality and momentum is undeniable. Alaves' ability to secure clean sheets (40% rate) and their high goal-scoring output at home make them heavy favorites to secure all three points against a winless Valencia side. Key Points: - Alaves is 3rd in the table; Valencia is 20th with 0 points. - Alaves has a 66.67% win rate in their last 6 home games. - Valencia has lost 4 out of 5 matches this season. - Alaves averages 2.33 goals at home, while Valencia concedes 1.60 per game. - Alaves holds a 75% home win rate against Valencia in H2H history. The chosen bet is Alaves Win.