Cardiff vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction - 17th February 2026

League One leaders Cardiff welcome AFC Wimbledon to Cardiff City Stadium on Tuesday evening looking to extend their remarkable unbeaten run. The Bluebirds sit proudly atop the table with 66 points from 31 games, boasting a formidable record of 20 wins, 6 draws and just 5 defeats. However, they face a Dons side that handed them a brutal 5-1 beating in the reverse fixture back in December, serving notice that this won't be a straightforward home banker. Cardiff's recent form has been nothing short of sensational. Unbeaten in their last ten outings (6 wins, 4 draws), they've been finding the net with alarming regularity—19 goals in that stretch at an average of 1.90 per game. Their home dominance is particularly impressive, winning 80% of their last five at home while averaging 2.20 goals per game. The 4-0 demolition of Barnsley and 3-1 victory over playoff-chasing Luton in their last two home outings showcase their attacking firepower. Yet, despite their league position, defensive perfection remains elusive—they've kept just three clean sheets in their last ten games (30%) and conceded in three of their last five home matches, including a 2-2 draw with Burton Albion where they squandered a lead. AFC Wimbledon arrive in 15th place but carry genuine threat. Their form guide reads patchy (4 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses in last 10), yet their ability to score against anyone was proven emphatically when they put five past Cardiff earlier this season. Recent results show their Jekyll and Hyde nature—a thrilling 3-2 victory over Reading (who sit 7th) and a 3-3 barnburner at Barnsley demonstrate their attacking capabilities, while 1-0 defeats to Bolton and Doncaster show they can be shut out by organized sides. The statistics paint a compelling picture for goal expectancy. Cardiff have scored in every single one of their last ten games, while Wimbledon have found the net in seven of their last ten. The Dons' away record is surprisingly robust—they're unbeaten in 80% of their last five away games (2 wins, 2 draws), scoring 1.60 goals per game on their travels. Defensively, both sides leak chances: Cardiff concede 0.80 per game overall (0.60 at home), while Wimbledon concede 1.50 per game. The shot data reveals Cardiff's dominance (16.6 shots per game at home vs Wimbledon's 8.8 away), but Wimbledon's efficiency in front of goal cannot be ignored after that December demolition job. **Key Points:** - Cardiff have scored in 100% of their last 10 games (19 goals total) - Wimbledon scored 5 goals against Cardiff in the reverse fixture this season - Cardiff have kept only 3 clean sheets in their last 10 games (30% clean sheet rate) - Wimbledon have scored in 7 of their last 10 matches, including 3 goals against promotion-chasing Reading - Cardiff's last 5 home games: 4 have seen both teams score (80% BTTS rate) - BTTS Yes available at 1.95 represents value given both teams' scoring records **Summary:** While Cardiff's title charge continues apace, their defence isn't impregnable—particularly against a Wimbledon side that has already proven they can exploit Cardiff's backline this season. With the hosts scoring relentlessly (2.20 goals per game at home) and the visitors capable of finding the net on the road (1.60 away average), the 1.95 on offer for Both Teams to Score represents excellent value. Cardiff will likely dominate possession and chances, but Wimbledon's counter-attacking threat and that psychological edge from the 5-1 win makes BTTS the smart play here.