Celta Vigo vs Alaves Prediction - 22nd March 2026

The upcoming La Liga fixture between Celta Vigo and Alaves presents a clear contrast in form and league position. Celta Vigo currently sits in 6th place with 41 points, while Alaves is struggling in 17th place with just 28 points. This significant gap in the standings sets the stage for a home advantage that bettors should consider. Celta Vigo's recent form over the last 10 games shows 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, averaging 1.60 points per game. Their offensive output is steady, averaging 1.30 goals scored per game. Defensively, they concede 1.00 goals per game. In contrast, Alaves has a much weaker record with only 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses in their last 10 games, averaging just 0.90 points per game. Alaves also struggles defensively, conceding 1.70 goals per game. Head-to-head history heavily favors Celta Vigo. In the last 9 meetings, Celta has won 6 times, drawn twice, and lost only once. Specifically, at home, Celta has a 75% win rate against Alaves, having won 3 of the 4 home encounters. The last meeting ended 1-0 in favor of Celta on 2025-11-22. This historical dominance suggests Celta is the favorite to take all three points. Statistically, Celta Vigo averages 1.20 goals scored at home and concedes 1.00 goals. Alaves away averages 1.00 goals scored and concedes 1.60 goals. The goal expectancy inputs suggest a home expectancy of 1.40 and away expectancy of 1.00, totaling around 2.40 goals. While Over 2.5 Goals is possible, the home win market offers clearer value given the odds of 1.83. The implied probability of 54.6% is significantly lower than our estimated true probability of 65%, creating positive expected value. Alaves has not kept a clean sheet in their last 10 games (0% clean sheet rate), while Celta has kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10 (30%). This defensive vulnerability for Alaves combined with Celta's home dominance points towards a home victory. The odds of 1.83 for a Celta win offer sufficient value given the team's superior form, league position, and historical record against Alaves. We recommend backing Celta Vigo to win.