Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Sichuan Jiuniu Prediction - 17th April 2026

The Super League fixture between Chongqing Tongliang Long and Sichuan Jiuniu presents a compelling contrast in form and stability. Chongqing Tongliang Long arrive at this match on an impressive unbeaten run, having recorded 6 wins and 4 draws in their last 10 games. This consistency has yielded an average of 2.20 points per game, positioning them as one of the more reliable teams in the league. Their defensive solidity is particularly notable, with a 70% clean sheet rate and an average of just 0.50 goals conceded per game across their last 10 matches. In contrast, Sichuan Jiuniu have struggled for consistency, managing only 4 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses in the same period, averaging 1.30 points per game. Their defensive record is significantly weaker, conceding 1.80 goals per game on average. When analyzing venue performance, Chongqing Tongliang Long have been formidable at home, averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded in their last 6 home games. Sichuan Jiuniu, however, have been less effective on the road, averaging just 0.75 goals scored and 2.00 goals conceded in their last 4 away games. The betting markets reflect Chongqing's superiority, with Home Win odds at 1.91. This price implies a 52.3% probability of a home victory. However, given Chongqing's 60% win rate over the last 10 games and their strong home record, the true probability of a home win likely exceeds the bookmaker's implied probability. This discrepancy creates a clear value opportunity. While goal expectancy data suggests a total of approximately 2.38 goals, the variance in recent scores (including high-scoring draws like 3-3) makes goal markets riskier. The most statistically supported outcome remains a Chongqing home win. Chongqing's recent results include a 2-1 victory over Wuhan Three Towns and a 1-0 win against Shenyang Urban, highlighting their ability to secure results. Sichuan's away form shows a 25% win rate, with a significant drop in scoring efficiency on the road (0.75 goals per game). The combination of Chongqing's defensive strength and Sichuan's away vulnerability makes the Home Win the most logical selection. **Key Points:** - Chongqing Tongliang Long are unbeaten in their last 10 games (6W, 4D). - Sichuan Jiuniu have a 25% win rate in their last 4 away games. - Chongqing averages 1.33 goals scored at home; Sichuan averages 0.75 goals scored away. - Chongqing's 70% clean sheet rate contrasts with Sichuan's 10% clean sheet rate. - Home Win odds of 1.91 offer value given Chongqing's form. **Recommended Bet:** Home Win