Reggiana vs Monza Prediction - 17th March 2026

Serie B title race and relegation battle collide as second-placed Monza visit 19th-placed Reggiana at the venue on March 17. The gulf in form is stark and defines this fixture. Monza sit on 63 points from 30 games, chasing the automatic promotion spots alongside leaders Venezia. Reggiana, with only 29 points from 30 games, are firmly in the drop zone fight. Monza's recent trajectory is undeniable. In their last 10 games, the Biancorossi have won 8, drawing once and losing just once. They have scored 20 goals in that span while conceding only 8. Their away form is particularly potent, securing 60% wins in their last 5 away fixtures. Averaging 1.60 goals scored on the road, they pose a constant threat to defenses. Possession stats show they average 54.2% when playing away from home. Conversely, Reggiana's struggles are evident. They have managed only 2 wins in their last 10 matches, accumulating a mere 0.90 points per game. At home, their attack has been toothless, averaging just 0.75 goals scored per game. Defensively, they have conceded 16 goals in the last 10 outings, a rate that leaves them vulnerable against high-quality opposition. Reggiana's shot accuracy sits at a low 25.3% in recent games. The odds reflect this disparity, with Monza priced at 1.69 to win. While favorites rarely offer huge value, the statistical edge here is clear. Monza's goal expectancy for this match sits at 1.55 compared to Reggiana's 0.97. This suggests a match environment where Monza is likely to control possession and create chances. Monza's finishing delta is positive at 0.54, indicating they are converting chances at a rate better than expected. Historical context adds nuance. Head-to-head records show a balanced split with two wins each in four meetings. However, the most recent encounter ended in a 3-1 victory for Monza. Given Reggiana's defensive frailties this season, repeating that scoreline is plausible. Monza's clean sheet rate of 50% in their last 10 games contrasts sharply with Reggiana's 20% clean sheet rate. Key Points: - Monza in 2nd place with 63 points, Reggiana 19th with 29 points. - Monza won 8 of last 10 games, Reggiana won only 2. - Monza conceded 8 goals in last 10, Reggiana conceded 16. - Monza Away Win odds at 1.69 offer value against current form. - Goal Expectancy favors Monza 1.55 to 0.97. With Monza in such commanding form and Reggiana struggling to score at home, the Away Win is the logical choice for this fixture. The probability of success is estimated at 65%, offering a solid edge at the current price. Recommended Bet: Monza Away Win.