Fiorentina vs Pisa Prediction - 23rd February 2026

This Sunday's Serie A relegation six-pointer sees 18th-placed Fiorentina host 19th-placed Pisa in what promises to be a crucial encounter for both sides' survival hopes. While the table makes for grim reading, the underlying goal data suggests we're in for an entertaining affair rather than a cagey relegation battle. Fiorentina arrive with genuine momentum, having secured back-to-back victories in their last two outings. The 2-1 win away to sixth-placed Como was particularly impressive given Como's strong defensive record (0.60 goals conceded per game), while Thursday's 3-0 Europa Conference League demolition of Jagiellonia showcased their attacking potential. However, the Viola's home form remains a significant concern - they've won just 20% of their last five home fixtures, drawing 40% and losing 40%, scoring only 1.20 goals per game at the Artemio Franchi compared to 2.00 on the road. Pisa's situation looks bleaker on paper with just one win all season and a winless run stretching 10 games (0-5-5). Yet they've shown resilience in avoiding defeat, drawing 12 of their 25 league games. Their away form is particularly curious - they've failed to win any of their last five road trips but have drawn 80% of them, suggesting they set up to frustrate rather than attack. However, they've conceded 2.20 goals per game away from home and kept just one clean sheet in their last 10 overall. The goal expectancy data points toward a high-scoring encounter with combined expectations of 3.20 goals (1.70 home, 1.50 away). This aligns perfectly with recent trends - Fiorentina's last 10 games have produced 30 goals (3.0 per game) with 8/10 going Over 2.5, while Pisa's matches have seen 32 goals (3.2 per game) with 6/10 exceeding the line. Both teams have shown defensive fragility, with Fiorentina conceding in 80% of recent games and Pisa shipping 2.2 per game away. **Key Points:** • Fiorentina have scored 16 goals in their last 10 games (1.60 per game) and conceded 14 • Pisa have conceded 22 goals in their last 10 (2.20 per game) but scored 10 (1.00 per game) • Fiorentina's last 10 games have seen Over 2.5 land in 8/10 matches • Pisa are winless in 10 but have drawn 5, including 4 of their last 5 away games • Fiorentina have only 4 days rest after European action compared to Pisa's 10 days • Both teams have kept just 3 clean sheets combined in their last 20 games While Fiorentina's home struggles make the 1.67 on a home win look skinny given Pisa's draw tendency, the goal markets offer genuine value. With attacking intent from the hosts and defensive vulnerabilities from the visitors, Over 2.5 goals at 1.80 represents a strong value proposition with an estimated 65% probability of landing based on recent form and goal expectancy models.