Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren Prediction - 11th February 2026

Two Premiership strugglers collide at Rugby Park with both Kilmarnock and ST Mirren desperately needing points to distance themselves from the drop zone. The data paints a picture of two offensively challenged sides who might just cancel each other out in what promises to be a tense, low-scoring affair. Kilmarnock's season has been nothing short of disastrous, sitting second-bottom with just 17 points from 25 games. Their recent form is equally concerning, with just one win in their last ten outings – a surprising 3-0 victory over Aberdeen on January 31st. That result stands as a lone bright spot amidst heavy defeats like the 5-1 thrashing by Rangers and a 4-0 loss to Motherwell. At home, their record is marginally better, scoring 1.25 goals per game compared to 0.67 on the road, but they've still lost three of their last four at Rugby Park. The underlying stats show they create chances at home (14.33 shots per game) but their defensive frailties are glaring, conceding an average of 2.00 goals per game over their last ten. ST Mirren, sitting four points and two places above their hosts, aren't faring much better. Their last ten games have yielded just a single victory – though it was a notable 1-0 upset over league leaders Hearts. What defines Stephen Robinson's side is their remarkable inability to win on the road, failing to secure three points in any of their last seven away fixtures. However, they've become draw specialists, sharing the spoils in 57% of those travels. Their attack is arguably the most impotent in the division, managing a paltry 0.50 goals per game over the last ten, with just 0.57 per game on their travels. The silver lining is a defensive trend that's showing signs of improvement, conceding fewer goals recently. The head-to-head history heavily favors Kilmarnock, with five wins, three draws, and just one loss in the last nine meetings. At Rugby Park, that dominance is even more pronounced with three wins and a draw from four encounters. However, the most recent clash on December 27th ended in a goalless stalemate, perhaps signaling a shift in this fixture's dynamic given both teams' current struggles. When we break down the betting markets, the value becomes clear. The odds of 3.32 for the draw imply just a 30% chance, but the data suggests that's an underestimation. ST Mirren's away draw rate of 57% is a massive statistical outlier, while Kilmarnock's historical hold over this fixture means they'll believe they can avoid defeat. Both teams average less than a goal per game, and with Kilmarnock conceding twice as many as they score, this has all the makings of a cagey, low-event match where neither side wants to make the costly mistake. **Key Points:** - Kilmarnock has won just once in their last ten matches (3-0 vs Aberdeen). - ST Mirren are winless in seven away games but have drawn four of them (57%). - The last meeting between these sides ended 0-0 on December 27th. - Kilmarnock averages 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded over their last ten. - ST Mirren averages just 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded over their last ten. - Historical H2H favors Kilmarnock (5W-3D-1L), including 3W-1D-0L at home. **Summary:** This relegation six-pointer pits two of the league's lowest scorers against each other. While Kilmarnock holds the historical edge, their current form is abysmal, and ST Mirren's resilience on the road – particularly their tendency to draw – cannot be ignored. With both teams terrified of losing and lacking attacking potency, the smart money points toward a tense, low-scoring draw that does little to ease either side's relegation fears. The odds of 3.32 for the draw represent genuine value against the implied probability.