Pisa vs Bologna Prediction - 2nd March 2026

Serie A's basement dwellers Pisa welcome eighth-placed Bologna to the Arena Garibaldi on Monday evening, and the statistics paint a grim picture for the home side. With just one solitary victory from 26 league outings this season, Pisa sit second-bottom on 15 points alongside Hellas Verona, desperately trying to claw their way out of the relegation zone. The hosts' recent form makes for particularly bleak reading. Over their last ten fixtures, Pisa have failed to register a single win, managing just four draws while suffering six defeats. Their defensive frailties have been exposed repeatedly, conceding 21 goals in that stretch at an average of 2.10 per game. At home, the situation deteriorates further – their last five home matches have yielded zero wins and four defeats, with a porous backline shipping 2.20 goals per game on average. Recent results include a humbling 6-2 thrashing at the hands of league leaders Inter and a comprehensive 3-0 defeat to high-flying Como. Even against mid-table opposition, Pisa have struggled to keep clean sheets, managing just one in their last ten outings. In stark contrast, Bologna arrive with genuine momentum and an impressive away record. The visitors have won five of their last ten matches across all competitions, averaging 1.70 points per game. Crucially, their away form has been exceptional – Bologna have claimed victory in 75% of their last four road trips, netting exactly two goals per game on their travels while conceding just one. Recent away successes include a 2-1 triumph at Torino and a professional 1-0 win against Brann in European competition. The head-to-head history heavily favors the visitors. In two recent meetings, Bologna have emerged victorious on both occasions without conceding a single goal, winning 3-0 and 4-0 respectively. Pisa have yet to find the net against this opposition in the available data, while shipping seven goals. From a tactical perspective, the numbers suggest Bologna will dominate possession (53.2% average vs Pisa's 40%) and create significantly more chances (16.20 shots per game vs Pisa's 10.30). With Pisa managing just 0.80 goals per game recently and Bologna keeping clean sheets in 40% of their last ten matches, the defensive solidity of the visitors should prove decisive. The only potential concern is fixture congestion – Bologna have played three matches in the last fourteen days compared to Pisa's single outing, with just four days rest since their Europa League exertions. However, the gulf in class between a side with one win all season and a team challenging for the top half should outweigh any fatigue factors. **Key Points:** • Pisa have won just 1 of 26 Serie A matches this season (3.8% win rate) • Bologna have won 75% of their last 4 away games, scoring 2.00 goals per game on the road • Head-to-head: Bologna have won both recent meetings 3-0 and 4-0 without conceding • Pisa concede 2.20 goals per game at home; Bologna's away games average 3.00 total goals • Goal expectancies suggest a 2.10-0.80 advantage to the visitors • Away win odds of 2.00 imply only a 50% chance – the true probability appears closer to 60-65% **Summary:** This fixture presents a clear mismatch between a side fighting for survival with virtually no winning pedigree and a team demonstrating consistent away form. At odds of 2.00, Bologna represent excellent value – the implied probability significantly undervalues their 75% away win rate against opposition that simply cannot buy a victory. Pisa's defensive record at home (2.20 conceded per game) versus Bologna's attacking output on the road (2.00 scored per game) points toward an away victory. The recommendation is Bologna to win at 2.00.