TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK Prediction - 21st February 2026

Fifth-placed TSV Hartberg welcome 11th-placed Grazer AK to the Profertil Arena this Saturday, with the hosts looking to consolidate their position in the upper echelons of the Austrian Bundesliga while the visitors desperately need points to climb away from the relegation zone. Hartberg arrive in excellent nick, having lost just once in their last ten outings (6W-3D-1L), averaging an impressive 2.10 points per game during this stretch. Their defensive solidity has been the cornerstone of this run, conceding a miserly 0.70 goals per game with a 40% clean sheet rate. At home, they have been particularly formidable, winning 57% of their last seven and leaking just 0.57 goals per game. Recent results include a hard-fought 0-0 draw against a decent SCR Altach side (averaging 1.80 PPG) and a 1-1 away point at Rapid Vienna. Even more encouraging was their pre-season form, where they dispatched Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 away and annihilated SV Lafnitz 7-0, suggesting this attack has multiple gears. Grazer AK, conversely, find themselves in the doldrums with only three league victories all season. While their recent 1-1 home draw against league leaders Red Bull Salzburg showcased their ability to frustrate superior opposition, their away record tells a worrying tale. GAK have failed to win any of their last four road trips (0W-2D-2L), scoring just 1.00 goal per game while conceding 1.75. Their 1-2 defeat at Sturm Graz is particularly concerning given Graz were struggling for form at the time (0.60 PPG in their preceding ten). With only a 10% clean sheet rate and a goals conceded trend that is worsening, defensive vulnerabilities are evident. The head-to-head record presents an intriguing anomaly. Hartberg have never beaten GAK at home in three attempts (0W-3D-0L), though they have won 3-0 on their last two visits to Graz. The most recent meeting in October ended goalless, and four of the six total encounters have finished level. However, with Hartberg's current trajectory sharply contrasting GAK's struggles, this historical pattern looks ripe to be broken. Statistically, the goal expectancies heavily favour the hosts at 1.88 to 0.79. Hartberg's shot data reveals an efficient, if direct, approach – averaging just 45% possession at home but converting chances at a 38.4% accuracy rate. Their +1.44 finishing delta indicates they are significantly overperforming expected goals, a sign of clinical striking. GAK dominate possession away (58%) but create less clear-cut opportunities, while their defensive record on the road suggests Hartberg's attack will find joy. **Key Points:** • Hartberg have won 6 of their last 10 games, conceding just 0.57 goals per game at home • Grazer AK have won 0 of their last 4 away matches and sit 11th in the table with only 17 points from 19 games • Head-to-head history shows 3 draws in 3 Hartberg home games, but the hosts won 3-0 on their last two visits to GAK • Goal expectancy models suggest a 1.88 vs 0.79 advantage for Hartberg • Home win odds of 2.30 imply a 43.5% chance, but form analysis suggests the true probability is closer to 50% **Summary:** Despite the historical head-to-head suggesting a tight contest, the current form gap is too significant to ignore. Hartberg's defensive miserliness at home (0.57 conceded per game) meets GAK's blunt away attack (1.00 scored per game), while the hosts' clinical finishing should prove decisive. The 2.30 on offer for a home win represents solid value against a side winless in four on the road. Back Hartberg to secure three points.