Brentford vs Burnley Prediction - 29th November 2025

This Premier League clash pits a mid-table Brentford side against a struggling Burnley team fighting near the relegation zone. The data paints a clear picture of two teams heading in opposite directions. Brentford comes into this fixture with respectable form, having secured 5 wins from their last 10 games. Their recent performances include impressive victories over Newcastle (3-1), Liverpool (3-2), and Manchester United (3-1), showcasing their ability to compete with top-tier opposition. However, they've shown some inconsistency with losses to Brighton (2-1) and Crystal Palace (2-0) in their last two outings. Burnley's form tells a concerning story, with just 2 wins from their last 10 matches. Their recent results include defeats to Chelsea (0-2), West Ham (3-2), and Arsenal (0-2). While they managed a 3-2 victory against Wolves and a 2-0 win over Leeds, these have been rare bright spots in an otherwise difficult campaign. The venue analysis heavily favors Brentford. At home, they boast a 60% win rate and average 2.00 goals per game. In contrast, Burnley's away form is dismal, with only a 25% win rate and a concerning 3.00 goals conceded per game on their travels. Statistically, Brentford holds significant advantages across key metrics. They average 11.70 shots per game compared to Burnley's 8.60, with better shot accuracy (40.2% vs 36.5%) and possession (46.4% vs 40.0%). These numbers suggest Brentford should control the tempo and create more opportunities. The head-to-head record shows Burnley historically dominates this fixture (4 wins to 2), but crucially, Brentford has won 2 of their 3 home meetings against Burnley. This home advantage could prove decisive. Given Burnley's defensive vulnerabilities away from home and Brentford's solid home attacking record, this looks like a game where the hosts should have the upper hand. However, betting value needs careful consideration. Key Points: - Brentford has 60% home win rate vs Burnley's 25% away win rate - Burnley concedes 3.00 goals per game away from home - Brentford averages 2.00 goals per game at home - Brentford has better attacking stats: 11.70 shots vs 8.60 for Burnley - Both teams have 60% BTTS rate in recent games, but Burnley struggles away - Goal expectancy suggests 2.50 goals for Brentford, 1.48 for Burnley The betting market offers Brentford at 1.45 for the home win, which seems fair but offers limited value. The Over 2.5 goals market at 1.80 looks appealing given the goal expectancy and both teams' recent scoring patterns. However, I'm drawn to the Both Teams to Score - No market at 1.80. Brentford's home defense has been relatively solid (1.20 goals conceded per game at home), while Burnley's away attack has been inconsistent. With Burnley's poor away form and Brentford's home advantage, there's a good chance we won't see both teams find the net.