Waalwijk vs Roda Prediction - 13th February 2026

Friday night Eerste Divisie action sees two mid-table contenders separated by just two points lock horns, and all the data points towards an entertaining, goal-filled affair. Waalwijk, sitting 8th with 37 points, welcome 5th-placed Roda (39 points) in what promises to be a clash of contrasting forms, especially when you consider the venue. **Form Guide: A Tale of Two Trends** Waalwijk's recent results paint a picture of inconsistency but undeniable attacking threat. Over their last ten outings, they've netted 24 times, averaging 2.4 goals per game, highlighted by a stunning 4-2 away victory at a strong De Graafschap side. However, their home form has been less convincing, with just one win in their last four at home (1-2-1). Defensively, they've been reasonably solid, conceding 1.4 per game on average and keeping three clean sheets. Roda's story is one of a Jekyll and Hyde complex. Their home form is alarming, winless in five (0-2-3), but on the road, they've been a different beast, winning three of their last five away trips (3-1-1). The most telling statistic, however, is their defensive record. They've conceded a whopping 24 goals in their last ten matches, averaging 2.4 against per game, and have failed to register a single clean sheet in that period. Conversely, they've scored in 9 of those 10 games, finding the net 19 times. **Head-to-Head & Key Stats** History slightly favours Waalwijk, who lead the head-to-head 4-3-1, including a comprehensive 4-1 victory in the reverse fixture earlier this season. Goals have been a feature in this fixture, with 4 of the 8 meetings seeing over 2.5 goals. Digging into the performance metrics, Roda creates more chances, averaging 15.22 shots and 5.67 on target per game compared to Waalwijk's 13.56 and 4.11. This offensive output, combined with their porous defence, sets the stage for an open game. The 'Both Teams to Score' market jumps off the page: it has landed in 70% of Waalwijk's last 10 and a staggering 90% of Roda's. **The Betting Angle** For a value-seeking bettor, the obvious play here is on goals. The market offers 'Both Teams to Score - Yes' at 1.53, which implies a probability of around 65%. Given the overwhelming evidence—Roda's 0% clean sheet rate, both teams' consistent scoring records, and Roda's high-scoring away games (averaging 5.2 total goals)—I believe the true likelihood is significantly higher, around 80%. This represents clear positive expected value. While the 'Over 2.5 Goals' line at 1.60 is also tempting, 'BTTS Yes' feels like the more robust selection. It doesn't require a goal-fest; a 1-1 draw would suffice, and with both teams' defensive vulnerabilities and attacking capabilities, that seems the minimum expectation. **Key Points:** * Roda are winless in 5 at home but have won 3 of their last 5 away. * Roda have conceded 24 goals in their last 10 games with 0 clean sheets. * 'Both Teams to Score' has landed in 9 of Roda's last 10 matches (90%). * Waalwijk score freely (2.4 goals/game avg) but are inconsistent at home. * The reverse fixture this season ended 4-1 to Waalwijk. **Summary** This has all the ingredients for a back-and-forth encounter. Waalwijk will fancy their chances against a leaky defence, while Roda's potent away attack should breach a Waalwijk backline that is far from impregnable. With the odds offering genuine value, backing both teams to find the net is the smart play here.