Atalanta vs Fiorentina Prediction - 30th November 2025

This Serie A clash presents a fascinating tactical battle between two sides struggling for consistency, though in very different ways. Atalanta sits 13th with 13 points, while Fiorentina languishes in 19th with just 6 points and remains winless in the league this season. Atalanta's recent form tells a story of frustration, particularly at home where they've managed just 0 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 home fixtures. Their goal-scoring record at home is alarming - averaging only 0.4 goals per game, which explains their high draw rate of 80%. Despite creating plenty of chances (15.3 shots per game), their shot accuracy sits at just 23.9%, indicating a serious conversion problem. Recent home results include 0-0 draws with Lazio and Slavia Praha, plus a 1-1 stalemate with AC Milan. The visitors arrive in desperate form, having failed to secure a single league victory all season. However, their recent results show some resilience with draws against Juventus (1-1) and Genoa (2-2). Away from home, Fiorentina actually scores more goals (1.4 per game) than at home, though their defensive record is concerning, conceding 1.8 goals per away fixture. Their only win in the last 10 games came in the Conference League against Rapid Vienna. The head-to-head record heavily favors Atalanta at home historically (3W-0D-1L), but the most recent meeting ended in a 0-1 defeat for the home side. Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities recently, with Atalanta keeping clean sheets in 40% of games while Fiorentina manages just 20%. Statistically, Atalanta dominates possession (57% vs 50.3%) and creates more shots, but Fiorentina shows better shot accuracy (29.6% vs 23.9%). The goal expectancy model suggests a tight affair with home advantage expected to yield 1.10 goals against 1.20 for the visitors. Given Atalanta's remarkable home draw rate, Fiorentina's winless league record, and both teams' scoring struggles, the draw appears the most logical outcome here.