Cremonese vs Bologna Prediction - 5th April 2026

The upcoming Serie A fixture between Cremonese and Bologna highlights a significant disparity in form and league position. Cremonese currently sits in 17th place with 27 points, struggling near the relegation zone. In contrast, Bologna holds the 9th spot with 42 points, comfortably clear of the drop zone. This 15-point gap underscores the difference in team quality and consistency over the season. Cremonese's recent home performance is a major concern for bettors. In their last five home games, the club has failed to secure a single victory, managing only two draws and three losses. Their offensive output at the Stadio Giovanni Zini is critically low, averaging just 0.20 goals scored per game at home. Defensively, they are vulnerable, conceding 1.60 goals per game in home fixtures. Over the last ten games, Cremonese has recorded only one win, resulting in a points-per-game average of 0.50. Their shot accuracy hovers around 27% at home, and they average 10.30 shots per game, indicating a lack of cutting edge in the final third. Bologna arrives in significantly better shape. The Rossoblu have won six of their last ten games, demonstrating strong consistency. Their away form is particularly impressive, boasting an 80% win rate in their last five away fixtures. Offensively, they average 1.60 goals scored per game away from home, compared to Cremonese's 0.20. Defensively, Bologna concedes only 0.80 goals per game on the road, providing a solid foundation for a win. Bologna also dominates possession with an average of 51.3% and takes 13.90 shots per game, creating more chances than the hosts. While the head-to-head record shows Cremonese won the most recent meeting 3-1 in December 2025, the current form book heavily favors the visitors. The betting market prices Bologna's Away Win at 2.05. Given Bologna's 80% away win rate recently and Cremonese's 0% home win rate, the implied probability of 48.8% undervalues Bologna's chances. A conservative estimate of a 60% win probability suggests a strong positive expected value, exceeding the 6% edge threshold required for a worthwhile bet. Key Points: - Cremonese: 0 wins in last 5 home games. - Bologna: 4 wins in last 5 away games. - Goal Expectancy: Bologna 1.60 away vs Cremonese 0.20 home. - Value: Away Win @ 2.05 offers >6% edge. In summary, the statistical evidence points to a Bologna victory. The combination of poor home form for Cremonese and strong away form for Bologna makes the Away Win the most logical selection.