Grimsby vs Notts County Prediction - 13th December 2025

Saturday's League Two clash between Grimsby and Notts County promises fireworks at both ends of the pitch. With the visitors sitting pretty in second place and the hosts languishing in mid-table, this isn't just a battle for points—it's a classic case of an irresistible attack meeting a porous defence. As a bettor who digs deep into the numbers, the data is screaming one particular outcome louder than any other. **League Position vs Recent Form** Notts County's league standing is impressive; they are second with 34 points from 19 games, boasting a healthy +11 goal difference. Grimsby, in 13th with 27 points, have been inconsistent but carry a potent threat, especially at home where they've scored an average of 2.17 goals per game. However, their defensive record at Blundell Park is a major concern, conceding exactly two goals per game on average. This sets the stage perfectly for a team like Notts County, who have been efficient on the road, winning 60% of their last five away games and scoring 1.60 goals per trip. **Dissecting the Recent Results** Grimsby's last ten games tell a story of goals and vulnerability. They've kept just one clean sheet in that period, with both teams scoring in 70% of those matches. Their recent 1-1 draw with Shrewsbury and 2-2 draw with high-flying Swindon Town show they can find the net against varied opposition, but the 1-2 home loss to Tranmere and 0-1 defeat to Chesterfield highlight defensive lapses. Their 4-0 FA Cup win over Wealdstone was a confidence booster, but league form has been patchy. Notts County's results are more impressive. A thrilling 3-2 win over playoff-chasing Milton Keynes Dons last time out showcased their attacking quality and resilience. Away from home, they've been solid, with a 1-0 win at Bristol Rovers, a 2-1 victory at Cheltenham, and a hard-fought 2-2 draw at Swindon Town. They've conceded just one goal per game on their travels, but crucially, they've kept only three clean sheets in their last ten overall, suggesting they are not immune to conceding. **Head-to-Head History is a Goal-Fest** The history between these two sides heavily favours goals. In nine previous meetings, both teams have scored in six of them (66.7%), and over 2.5 goals has landed in the same six encounters. The last five meetings have produced scores of 0-2, 1-4, 5-5, 2-3, and 1-1. This is not a fixture known for cagey, defensive football. **Statistical Breakdown & Betting Value** Looking at the raw numbers, Grimsby's home games average 4.17 total goals (2.17 for, 2.00 against). Notts County's away games average 2.60 goals (1.60 for, 1.00 against). While County's away defence is respectable, facing a Grimsby side that scores freely at home is a different challenge. The market offers 'Both Teams to Score - Yes' at 1.67. Given Grimsby's 70% BTTS rate and Notts County's 60% rate over the last ten games, combined with the historical trend, I believe the true probability of both teams scoring is closer to 65%. This presents a clear value opportunity, as the implied probability of the odds (59.88%) is lower than my assessment. **Key Points:** * **Form:** Grimsby's last 10 games saw BTTS in 70% of matches; Notts County's saw it in 60%. * **Home/Away Splits:** Grimsby scores 2.17 but concedes 2.00 per home game. Notts County scores 1.60 per away game. * **Head-to-Head:** Both teams have scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings (66.7%). * **Defensive Frailties:** Grimsby has kept just one clean sheet in ten. Notts County has kept three in ten. * **Odds Value:** At 1.67, 'BTTS - Yes' offers positive expected value against a probability estimate of ~65%. **Summary & The Bet** While Notts County are the stronger side and will be confident of getting a result, Grimsby's attacking prowess at home cannot be ignored. Their defensive issues, however, are likely to be exploited by a County side that knows how to find the net on the road. All the trends—recent form, historical meetings, and underlying statistics—point towards goals at both ends. The odds of 1.67 for 'Both Teams to Score - Yes' represent solid value for a bet with a high likelihood of landing.