Benevento vs Audace Cerignola Prediction - 26th April 2026

The Serie C - Girone C season reaches its climax as league leaders Benevento host mid-table Audace Cerignola on Saturday. With 81 points from 37 games, Benevento sits comfortably at the top of the table, boasting a formidable record that includes 25 wins and just 6 losses. Their recent form reflects this dominance: in their last 10 matches, Benevento has secured 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, averaging 2.00 points per game while scoring 12 goals and conceding just 7. Defensively, they have kept 4 clean sheets in that span, highlighting a solid backline that concedes an average of 0.70 goals per match overall, dropping to 0.75 at home. Audace Cerignola, sitting 9th with 53 points, presents a starkly different profile. Their last 10 games yield 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, averaging 1.40 points per game. More concerning is their away form: in their last 4 away fixtures, they have failed to secure a single victory, conceding a staggering 3.00 goals per game while only managing 1.00 goal scored. Their defensive vulnerabilities on the road directly contrast with Benevento's home solidity. Head-to-head history heavily favors the hosts. In their last 5 meetings, Benevento has won 2, drawn 3, and never lost to Cerignola. The most recent encounter ended in a resounding 4-0 victory for Benevento, underscoring their tactical superiority. Goal expectancy models project a match total of approximately 2.88 goals, driven by Benevento's 2.00 home goal expectation against Cerignola's 0.88 away goal projection. This mathematical split, combined with Cerignola's tendency to leak goals away from home, strongly points to a home victory. Betting markets price Benevento to win at 1.59, implying a 62.89% probability. Given the team's league-leading status, unbroken H2H record, and Cerignola's winless away run, the true probability of a home win likely exceeds 70%, offering positive expected value. The odds sit just under the 1.60 threshold, but the convergence of standings, form splits, and historical dominance provides the necessary confirmation to back the hosts. **Key Points:** - Benevento lead Serie C - Girone C with 81 points and a 60% win rate in their last 10 games. - Cerignola have not won any of their last 4 away matches, conceding 3.00 goals per game on the road. - Head-to-head record shows Benevento has never lost to Cerignola in their last 5 meetings, including a 4-0 win in December 2025. - Goal expectancy favors the home side, with a projected total of 2.88 goals driven by Benevento's attacking strength and Cerignola's defensive frailties away. - Home win odds of 1.59 offer value given the statistical edge and historical dominance. In summary, the data strongly supports backing Benevento to win at home. The combination of league leadership, a winless away run for the visitors, and a flawless H2H record makes the Home Win the clear selection.