Livingston vs ST Mirren Prediction - 28th February 2026

We head to the bottom end of the Scottish Premiership this Saturday where Livingston host ST Mirren in what looks like a classic relegation six-pointer. With both sides struggling for victories but showing differing levels of resilience lately, the value appears to lie in the draw market rather than picking a winner. Livingston remain anchored to the foot of the table with just one win all season, yet their recent form suggests they're becoming increasingly difficult to beat. The Lions have drawn six of their last ten matches, including impressive stalemates against high-flying Rangers (2-2) and Celtic (1-1) in their last three outings. While they still can't buy a win at home (0% win rate in last six), they've turned their ground into a fortress of frustration for opponents with a 67% draw rate. They're finding the net more regularly too, averaging 1.10 goals per game across their last ten, though defensive frailties remain with 1.90 conceded per game. ST Mirren arrive sitting ten points clear of Livingston but in arguably worse form. The Buddies have taken just one win from their last ten fixtures (0.70 PPG) and were hammered 5-0 by Motherwell in their most recent away day. Their away record reads dismally with zero wins in their last six road trips (50% draws, 50% losses), scoring just 1.00 per game while shipping 1.83. While they did manage a shock 1-0 home win against Hearts recently, their attacking output has dried up significantly with only seven goals in their last ten games. The head-to-head history heavily favors the draw. The last five meetings between these sides have produced four draws and just one ST Mirren victory. Crucially, they've already played out two 1-1 draws this calendar year alone – once in the league on January 20th and again in the FA Cup three days earlier. All five of their most recent encounters have finished with under 2.5 goals, averaging just 1.2 goals per game. **Key Points:** • Livingston are unbeaten in three, drawing against Rangers, Dundee and Celtic • ST Mirren have lost three of their last four, conceding 11 goals in that spell • The last five H2H meetings have produced four draws • Both teams have already drawn 1-1 twice this season • Livingston have drawn 60% of their last 10 games; ST Mirren have drawn 50% of their last 6 away games • ST Mirren have failed to win any of their last 6 away matches **Summary:** With Livingston showing newfound resilience against top-tier opposition and ST Mirren struggling badly on their travels, this has all the hallmarks of another tight, tactical affair. The 3.40 available on the draw represents excellent value given both teams' propensity for sharing the spoils and their recent history of doing exactly that. At odds that imply just a 29.4% chance, the true probability sits closer to 35-40% based on current form trends.