AC Milan vs Bologna Prediction — Elo & form

AC Milan enter this Serie A fixture in strong shape, having won three of their last five matches and scored 11 goals across that span. Their home record over the last 20 games is a reliable foundation: 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses, with 1.4 goals scored per game and 1.1 conceded. In their last 10 matches across all competitions, AC Milan have averaged 1.8 goals per game and 1.8 points per game, a return that sits well above Bologna's 0.9 goals and 0.9 points over the same stretch. The xG numbers back this up: AC Milan have generated 1.66 xG per game over their last 9 matches with data, while Bologna have produced 1.29 per game over 8. That is a meaningful gap in creative output.

The head-to-head adds further weight. The only meeting within the last 12 months was at Bologna's ground in February, where AC Milan won 3-0. The older meetings at AC Milan's ground are historical, but they show the home side winning 2 of 3. With just one recent meeting between these sides, the current form and venue records carry more weight than the longer history.

Bologna's case rests on their recent away result. They won 2-0 at Cagliari just four days before this kickoff and have 11 wins from 20 away games. However, their last 10 matches across all venues tell a different story: 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses, with only 0.9 goals scored per game. The 1-3 home defeat to Inter 11 days ago underlines the vulnerability Bologna show against top opposition, and their xG output of 1.29 per game sits well below AC Milan's 1.66. Bologna's defence has also conceded 1.2 goals per game over their last 10, which is a concern when facing a side scoring 1.8 per game.

The main concern for AC Milan is their 0-3 loss to Bournemouth in the Europa League six days ago, where a red card in the 27th minute derailed the match. That was an away European fixture, not a home Serie A game, and the Rossoneri had won 3-2 at home to Atalanta just before it. Still, going a full 90 minutes without scoring does raise a question about sharpness in front of goal. Bologna, for their part, are coming off a clean-sheet away win, which gives them some momentum heading into this one.

Key Points:

• AC Milan have won 3 of their last 5 and scored 11 goals in that span; Bologna have won 2 of 5 and scored 6.

• AC Milan's home record: 9W 6D 5L in 20 games, 1.4 scored and 1.1 conceded per game.

• The only recent head-to-head (February 2026) was a 3-0 AC Milan win at Bologna's ground.

• Bologna's last 10 matches: 2W 3D 5L, 0.9 goals per game; AC Milan: 5W 3D 2L, 1.8 goals per game.

• AC Milan's xG for (1.66 per game) exceeds Bologna's xG for (1.29 per game) by a clear margin.

I rate AC Milan's chances of winning this match at around 63%, which I see as a touch higher than the 58.82% the market implies. The Rossoneri's home form, attacking output and the head-to-head all point in their direction, and while Bologna's recent away win at Cagliari is a note of caution, their overall form over the last 10 games is simply not good enough to challenge a side scoring 1.8 per game. My pick is the AC Milan home win at 1.7.