Arezzo vs Ascoli Prediction - 30th March 2026

This is a blockbuster top-of-the-table clash in Serie C Girone B, with leaders Arezzo (70 points) hosting second-placed Ascoli (65 points). The margin is just 5 points, making this a potential title decider. Arezzo have been solid, winning 6 of their last 10 games while keeping 7 clean sheets. Their defensive record is impressive - just 4 goals conceded in 10 matches. However, their home form has been inconsistent, with only a 40% win rate in their last 5 home games. Ascoli, on the other hand, are in absolutely scintillating form. They have won 9 of their last 10 games, remaining unbeaten throughout that run. More impressively, they have won all 5 of their last away games, scoring 2.6 goals per away game on average. Their attack has been prolific, netting 25 goals in their last 10 matches. The head-to-head record is relatively balanced, with Arezzo winning the last meeting 2-0 in November. However, Ascoli's current form is simply superior. The odds of 3.25 for an Ascoli away win represent significant value. Given their perfect away record in the last 5 games and their 90% win rate overall, I believe the implied probability of 30.8% undervalues the visitors. Arezzo's defense has been tested recently, and Ascoli's attack is firing on all cylinders. While Arezzo have kept 7 clean sheets, Ascoli have found the net in 10 of their last 10 games, suggesting they will score. The goal expectancy of 1.70 for Ascoli aligns with their scoring form. This is a clear value play on Ascoli to win away.