Almere City FC vs Roda Prediction — Elo & form

Almere City FC enter this Eerste Divisie fixture at their ground in strong form, having won all three of their recent home matches — 3–0 against FC Eindhoven, 1–0 against FC Volendam, and 1–0 against Heracles. Every one of those victories came with a clean sheet, and their home record over 20 games tells the story: 13 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses, with 2.05 goals scored per game and just 1.15 conceded. Their latest 10 games across all venues have produced 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses, with 2.2 goals scored per game.

Roda, by contrast, travel with a more mixed bag. Their last five matches produced 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, and their away record over 20 games sits at 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses. Their most recent away outing saw them beat Jong Utrecht 2–1, but before that they lost 0–2 at VVV Venlo and drew 0–0 at Jong Ajax. Over their last 10 games, Roda have scored just 1.2 goals per game, compared to Almere City FC's 2.2. They have also failed to score in 2 of their last 5 matches.

The head-to-head offers limited recent evidence. The only meeting within the last 12 months was at Almere City FC's ground in January 2026, which Roda won 2–1. The older meetings, stretching back to 2018, are historical and do not reflect current form.

The counter-argument is that Roda did win at this ground eight months ago, and their recent away win at Jong Utrecht shows they can perform on the road. Their xG figures — 1.82 per game for and 1.41 per game against — suggest they create reasonable chances and face manageable pressure. Almere City FC's only recent blemish is the 1–2 loss at Emmen six days ago, which came on the road. The market prices Almere City FC at 1.87, implying a 53.48% chance, but the weight of home form and Roda's inconsistent away record points to a higher likelihood for the hosts.

Key Points:

• Almere City FC have won their last three home games, all with clean sheets (3–0, 1–0, 1–0)

• Roda's away record is 8W 7D 5L over 20 games, scoring 1.9 per game

• The only recent head-to-head meeting (January 2026) was a 2–1 Roda win at this ground

• Almere City FC's latest 10 games: 7W 0D 3L, scoring 2.2 per game

• Roda have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 matches

With Almere City FC's dominant home run and Roda's inconsistent away record, I'm backing the Almere City FC home win.