Arzignano Valchiampo vs Novara Prediction — Elo & form

Arzignano Valchiampo host Novara on 25 October in Serie C Girone A, and the form gap between the two sides is hard to ignore.

Arzignano Valchiampo have won five of their last ten matches across all venues, scoring 1.6 goals per game while conceding 1.3. At home over 20 games, the record is 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses, with 1.45 goals scored per game. Their last five matches produced 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, with 9 goals scored and 5 conceded. The only blemish is the 0–1 defeat at Cittadella on 19 October, which followed a 2–1 home win over Juventus U23, a 2–2 draw with Pergolettese and a 3–0 away victory at Athletic Carpi.

Novara, by contrast, have won just two of their last ten matches, with five draws and three losses. They score 1.0 goal per game and concede 1.3. In their last five matches, the record is 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 6 goals scored and 9 conceded. Notably, Novara have failed to score in two of those five games and have not kept a clean sheet in any of them. Their away record over 20 games is 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses, with 1.1 goals scored per game.

The head-to-head is mostly historical. The only meeting within the last 12 months was a 1–1 draw at Arzignano Valchiampo's ground on 27 February 2026. Before that, the fixture goes back to 2022, with Novara winning four of the eight meetings, though those results span three years and do not reflect current form.

The matchup comparison tells a clear story. Arzignano Valchiampo at home score 1.45 goals per game and concede 1.2, while Novara away score 1.1 and concede 1.0. Arzignano's home attack is the stronger of the two, and their home record produces more wins (8 to 7) and fewer losses (6 to 5) than Novara's away record.

The counter-argument is that Arzignano Valchiampo's most recent result was a loss, and the one recent head-to-head meeting ended in a draw. Novara's away record is not without positives — seven wins in 20 away games — and they have kept 7 clean sheets on the road. But the overall picture, with Novara scoring just 1.0 goal per game across their last ten matches and failing to score in half of them, makes a Novara win a stretch at 3.2.

Key Points:

• Arzignano Valchiampo: 5W 2D 3L in last 10, 1.6 goals scored per game

• Novara: 2W 5D 3L in last 10, 1.0 goals scored per game, 5 failed to score

• Arzignano home record: 8W 6D 6L, 1.45 goals per game; Novara away: 7W 8D 5L, 1.1 goals per game

• Only recent H2H meeting (Feb 2026) was a 1–1 draw; older results are historical

• Arzignano's last game was a 0–1 loss at Cittadella, but the broader form is strong

My estimate puts Arzignano Valchiampo's chances of a win at roughly 48%, which sits comfortably above the market's 40.32% implied figure. The home win at 2.48 offers a reasonable return for a side whose form, venue record and attacking output all point in their favour.