Preview
LiveScoresXThe numbers at Roma's ground tell a clear story. Across 20 home games, AS Roma have won 13, drawn 5 and lost just 2, scoring 2.45 goals per game while conceding only 0.95. Eleven of those 20 home matches ended in a clean sheet, and Roma have failed to score in none of them. That is a record that demands respect.
Cagliari, by contrast, travel to this fixture with a worrying away record. Over 20 away games, they have won 6, drawn 6 and lost 8, managing just 1 goal per game while conceding 1.55. Six of those 20 away matches saw them fail to score at all. Their current run makes the situation even more concerning: they have lost their last two games, scoring zero in both — a 0-2 defeat to Bologna at home on 24 October and a 0-4 loss at Monza on 19 October.
The head-to-head at this venue reinforces the pattern. The most recent meeting here, on 9 February 2026, ended 2-0 to Roma. The reverse fixture at Cagliari's ground saw the Sardinians win 1-0 in December 2025, but the older meetings at Roma's ground (1-0 and 4-0) are historical and do not carry the same weight.
Roma's recent form is not without blemish. They drew 3-3 at Napoli on 24 October and 0-0 at Como on 11 October, and lost 3-4 to Real Madrid in the Champions League on 14 October. However, their home wins — 4-0 over Slovan Bratislava and 2-0 over Genoa — show they can be clinical at home. Their xG figures back this up: 2.0 created per game over their last 8 matches with data, against 1.2 conceded.
Cagliari's xG picture is less encouraging. They have generated just 1.03 xG per game over their last 8 matches with data, while conceding 1.74. Their attack has been silent in their last two outings, and their away scoring record of 1 goal per game suggests they will struggle to find the net here.
The market prices Roma at 71.43% for a win at 1.4. My own reading of the evidence — Roma's dominant home record, Cagliari's poor away form and their current run of being shut out — puts Roma's chance closer to 76%. That gives the price a slight edge over the market's view.
Key Points:
- AS Roma have won 13 of their last 20 home games, scoring 2.45 per game and keeping 11 clean sheets
- Cagliari have lost their last two matches, scoring zero in both, and have failed to score in 6 of their last 20 away games
- The most recent meeting at Roma's ground ended 2-0 to the hosts
- Roma's xG output (2.0 per game) significantly outpaces Cagliari's (1.03 per game)
- Cagliari's away record: 6W 6D 8L in 20 games, 1 goal per game
Verdict: I'm backing the AS Roma home win at 1.4.