AVS vs Tondela Prediction — Elo & form

Tondela arrive at AVS's ground in strong form, having won four of their last five matches and conceded just one goal across that span. Their defensive record is the standout feature: they kept clean sheets in four of those five games, and in their last ten matches, at least one team failed to score in seven of them. The head-to-head reinforces this picture. Both recent meetings within the last 12 months ended in draws — a 0–0 at Tondela's ground in March and a 2–2 at AVS's ground in November — while the older meetings from 2024 were Tondela wins. The recent head-to-head record points to a tight, low-scoring dynamic between these sides.

AVS's home record over 20 games tells a similar story. They have failed to score in 9 of those 20 home matches, and in 13 of them at least one team kept a clean sheet. Their last five matches show a 3-game winning run (scoring 5, conceding 1), but the form before that included a 0–0 draw at home against Farense and a 1–2 loss away to Lusitânia Lourosa. At home, AVS have recorded 13 under-2.5 results in 20 games, and their last five matches have produced under 2.5 goals in three of five.

The counter-argument is that Tondela's away record over 20 games is less comfortable: 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses, with 1.75 goals conceded per game. Their most recent match was a 0–0 draw at home against Alverca, and the last meeting at this specific venue ended 2–2, meaning both teams found the net. AVS are also on a three-game winning run and have scored in four of their last five matches, which could keep the BTTS door open.

Key Points:

• Tondela have kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 5 matches, and 7 of their last 10 have seen at least one team fail to score

• AVS have failed to score in 9 of their last 20 home games

• Both recent head-to-head meetings within 12 months were draws

• Tondela's away record over 20 games includes 11 losses

• The last meeting at this venue ended 2–2

Verdict: Both teams not to score.